Uncertainty toolkit

The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) has helped to develop a new toolkit for analysts. The Uncertainty Toolkit for Analysts in Government is for use when they’re confronted by a problem that includes elements of uncertainty.

GAD worked with 8 other government departments and a public sector organisation to develop and refine the advice and guidance.

Step by step

The toolkit’s structure means that it breaks down the process of conducting analysis involving uncertainty into a 4-step process:

• agreeing how uncertainty should be used to help answer the question
• defining and identifying uncertainty
• measuring and understanding uncertainty
• presenting and communicating uncertainty

For each step the toolkit guides the analyst with examples and explanations. It provides key points to consider and suggestions of actions to take.

Uncertainty and analysis

Most of the projects that government analysts work on contain inherent uncertainty. Analysis should be conducted taking this uncertainty into account.

The results of the analysis need to be communicated to decision-makers in government in a clear way to ensure the nature of the uncertainty and subsequent results are understood.

The toolkit helps analysts to do this, and in doing so is designed to ensure that properly informed decisions can be made.

Working together

Scott Waygood, who leads on this project in GAD said: “The development of this toolkit has really been a great collaboration by people in a wide range of government departments and other organisations.

“We’ve brought together evidence and best practice from across the analytical community, both within and outside of government, and we’ll continue to work on improving the guidance in response to feedback we’ve received.”

The toolkit, which is an ongoing project, is the result of extensive research and discussions around good practice for dealing with and communicating uncertainty.