Public spending up by £350 bn this year on 2019

The combination of inflation, a productivity collapse and higher interest rates means public spending is up by £350 bn this year compared to 2019.

No wonder taxes are so high. If the public services got their productivity back up to 2019 levels they would cost £30 bn less. Productivity was down 15.2% in 2020, up 7.3% in 2021 and up 1.7% last year.Overall public sector productivity 2019 to end 2022 is down 7.5%.




The BBC fails to represent a wide range of political views and news.

It took my breath away to hear BBC Radio 4 attacking GB News because they do not observe the BBC’s view of “ neutrality”.

Why do the BBC think they reflect the range of  political views in the UK? How can they not see themselves as they are, a voice for the public sector establishment. They seem to be  pro Biden and anti Republican, pro Social and Liberal Democrat groupings and anti “populist” parties that sometimes win elections. You see that in their choice of stories, choice of “ experts” and line of questions. They are anti Brexit going on and on about trade with the EU as if that was the main point of it, anti lower taxes and a smaller state. Their chosen experts in economics slavishly follow the failed forecasts and models of the OBR and Bank. They find comfort in continuously getting it wrong together.

They seem to believe that every problem can be solved by government action, usually requiring more spending and higher taxes. Yesterday their US political correspondent had to tell us some are raising age issues about  Mr Biden, yet he told us as a fact that Biden is only two and half years older than Trump. He  is 3 years seven months older than Trump. Why not tell the truth and let us decide if either or both are too old to undertake another 4 years in the top job?

They refuse to interview the Bank of England to hold  them accountable for inflation and the collapse of the bond market. They  tell us the Bank is independent and responsible for inflation so  why no tough interviews? They made a huge fuss about bond yields rising under Truss, but far less fuss now they have risen higher. They fail to interview the management and advisers to HS 2 to find out why it is so massively over budget and out of timetable. They do not cross examine top management of the NHS about the poor employee relations and productivity issues. They do not interview  the OBR to explain their hopeless record on forecasting the deficit.

They are the main cheerleaders for an extreme version of progress to net zero for the UK, so we have to rely on imports from countries still burning coal. They decline to examine the problems with carbon accounting or the way in which some of the net zero “solutions” actually increase world CO 2.

They do not regard £24 bn of losses year to date by the Bank of England as news. They fail to report and discuss the government studies showing a collapse of public sector productivity this decade. They do not mention the loss of 800,000 self employed since February 2020. They fail to offer regular critical analyses of policy and politics in France or Germany, seeing the EU as a repository of international values they clearly like.

They rarely interview Conservative thinkers or explore popular Conservative ideas. They prefer to find caricature slots for them or to highlight it when someone makes a mistake in what they say.They read little and  talk to few sources outside a circle of similar thinking establishment figures. They promote every  kind of diversity save diversity of thought.




Ways to cut the UK’s CO 2 output

I have been critical of various government policies that have been done in the name of net zero yet on analysis may well increase the output of world CO 2. I have been generally critical of policies designed to shut down carbon intensive activities in the UK, only to import from abroad.

Knowing how keen the Opposition parties and government are on cutting our CO 2, I thought today I would set out some obvious ways of doing this that the government should consider. In many cases they would also cut public spending and generate more tax revenue, helping tackle  excessive debts and deficits as well.

  1. Reduce the numbers of legal migrants to the UK. One of the biggest causes of extra CO 2 is the need to build homes, surgeries, schools, other public facilities and utility provision for an extra 600,000 people a year on last year’s figures. Once the construction is done then they all turn on their gas central heating and get in their petrol cars. That is a big rise in CO 2.
  2. Extract more gas and oil from the North Sea, recording a substantial CO 2 saving on imports.
  3. Remove the Old Oak Common to Euston leg of HS 2, saving a large amount of CO 2 intensive concrete, steel and construction activity.
  4. Install better insulation and solar roof panels in a wide range of public sector buildings to cut energy use and cost.
  5. Cut back heavily on government trips abroad in person using jet travel, by using on line conference calls  much more. Encourage the COP meetings to be on line as it looks so bad to see so much jet travel and air conditioned hotel use for an anti CO 2 conference.
  6. Encourage the development of synthetic fuels so we can continue to use existing vehicle/plane/plant engines for longer. This will save all the CO 2 involved in scrapping existing  technology and making all new electric versions. Extending useful lives and recycling is crucial to cutting CO 2. Synthetic  fuels can be introduced as soon as they are available by increasing the proportions put into the current fossil fuels.  (E 10 petrol. sustainable aviation fuel)
  7. Do not subsidise more electric cars, heating systems and the rest until a) all our electrical power is low or no  carbon and b) there is enough grid and  cable capacity to do this
  8.  Please get better at carbon accounting



The UK balance of trade

I have worried more about the UK’s continuing balance of trade deficit than its persistent government deficit though both pose problems. Our trade deficit became entrenched during our time in the EU and revolved around a heavy deficit with EU in goods. Now we have left more could be done to replace imports from the EU. Our  trade with the rest of the world has been much better balanced despite big deficits with China and Norway. We are in deficit with far too many EU countries.

In 2022 our deficit in goods was £231 bn. The three largest sources were Germany, Norway and China, accounting for around £40 bn each or a total of £120 bn. We have come far too dependent on importing  energy  from Norway. We import many vehicles, chemicals and machinery from Germany and many goods including our turbines, solar panels and batteries from China.

Getting out more of our own oil and gas is important to cut this deficit. Rosebank yesterday was a good start. Bring on the others I have written and spoken about.




My Interview with GB News

Please find below my Interview with GB News Richard Tice

You can find it between 47:21-55:35