The local election results

After all the hype Labour failed to break through in the local elections. It continues to suffer outside London from its ambivalent stance towards Brexit. In London it did get a further small swing and is well in the lead in votes, Councillors and Councils. There its trimming away from its pro Brexit stance in the 2017 election probably helped a little, particularly with the EU nationals who vote in local but not in national elections. Much of the UKIP vote went Conservative.

Overall Conservatives won control of four Councils and lost control of six, whilst Labour lost control of 2 and gained control of 3. Both main parties got 35% of the vote on the national projections , with Lib Dems rising from their 10% at the General election to 16% in the locals.

The message for the government is clear. People want them to get on with it and see Brexit through quickly and   cleanly. That means taking back control of our borders, our money, our laws, our fish and our trade policy. There is little sympathy for the Remain led cries from the Lords and even from within government to delay, to recreate much of the EU we are leaving, to seek such a comprehensive partnership that we are left paying them money and accepting their laws.  A majority of the public does not believe Project Fear and does not think trade will be damaged  if we do not accept the EU’s terms for a deal.

I found on the doorsteps a refreshing interest in local issues and local concerns, with a good conversation about development, the state of the roads, and housing. Here the incumbents of both parties had to fight to persuade people they are doing a good enough job. Very few Councils changed hands, meaning the benefit of the doubt went to most Councils struggling with these difficult matters.




Slowing economies

We now see that most of the main western economies slowed in the first quarter of 2018. Part of this is likely to have been bad weather, possibly with insufficient seasonal adjustments in the figures. The UK economy slowed as  I predicted,  both through the EU slowdown and from the change of  domestic policy designed to slow it. This had nothing to do with Brexit. The Bank’s decisions to raise rates, withdraw substantial special credit lines from the clearing banks, and ask them to rein in consumer and car loan credit have had an effect as expected. The tax rises on Buy to Let, dearer homes and cars have reduced activity and investment. In the months after the referendum vote car sales and consumer sales generally flourished, with good overall growth, before these policy actions were taken to rein it in some nine months later. Shop prices continue to fall, boosting consumers’ effective spending power.

The government should be thinking about what it can do to speed growth up again. Across the Atlantic the Trump tax cuts are having very positive effects on growth and confidence. Consumers have more money to spend. Companies have more money to invest, to grant pay rises and to reward shareholders who in turn can spend more. Many US corporations are busy repatriating cash to the USA, and there have been numerous announcements of pay awards and of increased investment programmes to raise US capacity.

The US has also given itself a big boost by granting more licences to drill for oil and gas, and allowing more pipelines construction to deliver the results. Cheap energy and cheap feedstock for the chemical industry are two important underpinnings of a successful industrial strategy.

It looks as if this year the US is going to grow faster again than the EU, benefitting from a climate that favours enterprise. The US is also capturing more and more of the consumer spending through its highly successful technology based companies. The latest figures from Apple show huge cash generation, whilst Amazon continues to lift turnover from traditional  retailers on both sides of the Atlantic.




The EU budget 2021-27

It was interesting yesterday to hear the media telling us the EU would lose a net 15bn Euros from the UK’s exit from the EU, much in line with the £12bn net UK gain  figure I and others used throughout the referendum campaign. Remain supporters used to tell us it was nothing like as much as this. I hope they were listening.

It was also interesting to see the priorities for increased spending by the EU. They propose increasing defence expenditure 22 fold from a low base. They want to spend 2.6 times as much on  borders, and 2.5 times as much on civil protection as in the present budget period.  We were told there would be no EU army, yet work continues apace to increase the EU’s role in Member states defence.

They also propose three new sources of tax revenue for the EU going forward. There will be a 3% levy on Corporation tax to pay for the single market, as they move to legislate for a “common consolidated corporation tax base”. (Remember all the promises that tax was a red line remaining under national control?) The EU will take 20% of Emissions Trading revenue, and will up its share of customs revenue from 80% to 90%. There will be a new non recycled plastics tax.

The EU will sweep aside all remaining member states rebates over the period 2012-26. They will prevent countries that have “rule of law deficiencies” from getting access to various EU monies to give the EU more leverage over national policies and electoral results they do not like. They are setting up a couple of new funds to help convergence in the Euro area and to assist countries preparing to join the single currency.

It is a sensible budget given the ambitions to create a political union and to project it more on the world stage. The budget reveals what Vote Leave set out – this is not a mere trading arrangement, but a serious attempt at full economic, monetary and political union. This budget and related measures will give it more money per head to spend, and will give the Union more power over the member states.




Breast Cancer Screening

I enclose details of today’s statement from the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care about Breast Cancer Screening. Any constituents who have concerns should call the breast screening helpline number on 0800 169 2692:




Breast Cancer Screening

I enclose details of today’s statement from the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care about Breast Cancer Screening. Any constituents who have concerns should call the breast screening helpline number on 0800 169 2692: