Nicola Sturgeon says if the PM and U.K. Parliament stick to their view there should be no Independence Referendum this Parliament we will be defying the wishes and will of the Scottish people. That simply is not true. In the constituency vote the SNP and Greens combined vote share was 49% meaning 51% voted for parties in favour of the Union. The Green and SNP vote share in the Regional section was 48.4%, with Alba adding another 1.7%. So overall averaging both votes supporters of the Union and no referendum marginally held the majority.
Opinion polls suggest a slightly larger majority for the Union in polls about a referendum vote. This is reflected in Sturgeon’s wish to delay the Independence vote she wants, hoping the case for independence will sway more people. Her only criterion for wanting a ballot is going to be polls that imply a good chance of winning.
I support the PM’s decision to oppose another vote. He can do so fairly on Sturgeon’s own argument that we should take the votes cast last Thursday as the guide.He can do so because the last referendum was agreed by all parties at the time to be a once in a generation vote. He can do so on the argument that such referendums are disruptive so should only be accepted after a long interval of calm from constitutional upheaval.He can do so because there is a big majority for the Union in the U.K. Parliament.
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