Now the government wants to control legal migration it needs to calculate the costs of new legal migrants into low paid jobs to taxpayers. The government now we are out of the EU can make legal migration any amount it likes, from the 750,000 it was at its peak to zero. Every legal migrant  needs a permit from government. Government allows large numbers of low paid workers and students to come.

The Treasury wrongly thinks this boosts our financial position. It is true it adds to GDP but it also adds substantially to public spending and may reduce GDP per  capita. The Treasury/OBR model once again is misleading and encourages bad policy.

As I have argued before every migrant needs housing, healthcare, utility capacity, roadspace and other public services. My forecast of £250,000 for the capital set up costs and early years free services still stands. Ministers should get an up to date government figure and feed it into OBR models.

Students pay more to the universities which makes sense for their costs. It does not necessarily work for the state if they bring dependants who qualify for free public services and subsidised housing.

Government also needs to take account of associated costs and problems. 750,000 extra  people need a lot of housing. Even where they can afford their own it places considerable upwards pressure on rents which in turn increases general housing benefit costs. It makes it more difficult for those already legally settled here to obtain and afford a home of their own. More pressure on the NHS makes it difficult to get waiting lists down. Inviting in more staff for  the  NHS also creates more demand for NHS staff.

UK communities are full of people who warmly welcome refugees, invited Ukrainians into their homes after the invasion and accept the need for  some economic migrants. Many people also think 650,000 a year  is far too many, creating strains on public services, housing. infrastructure and community abilities to welcome and adapt.

President Biden expelled more than 1 million illegal migrants from the Mexican border last year. France is sending illegals back to Italy. Various EU countries are considering ways of cutting migration. The EU is working on a system of quotas and requirements for member states to take their share of the many entering the EU.

Robert Jenrick did not come to his conclusions on immigration through ideology. Asked to be Immigration Minister he approached it cautiously. He formed his view that we needed to be a lot tougher from his day by day experiences . He saw at first hand how young fit men came in large numbers on dodgy unlicensed boat trips. He wanted to end these dangerous journeys, deter more illegals and break the businesses of those who charge them to undertake the trip.

He was persuaded it would take new law. To avoid another defeat in the courts  it would take stronger legal powers.In Suella Braverman he had a boss who knows migration law inside out. He recognised the wisdom of her views like his own.

Yesterday when we at last saw the Bill we heard from Suella that the bill would not be lawyer proof. There could be more challenges in international courts.

I cannot see the point of putting through legislation which does not work. The Home Secretary is going to have to reassure people this  time they will stop the boats.

John Redwood (Wokingham) (Con):

We eased the driver shortage by training more people at home and paying them more. Is that not the right model for the scarcity occupations?

James Cleverly (Secretary of State for the Home Office):

My right hon. Friend is right. What we want is a high-skilled, high-productivity, high-wage economy. These proposals and the work that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor announced support that. Labour would do the opposite.

The UK government made the following statement yesterday

” Home Secretary James Cleverly has signed a joint Treaty with his counterpart, Foreign Minister, Dr Vincent Biruta, strengthening the UK and Rwanda’s Migration and Economic Development Partnership and directly addressing the concerns of the Supreme Court.

The agreement is part of the government’s plan to ensure that illegal migrants can be lawfully relocated to Rwanda under the Government’s ambition to stop the boats – ensuring that people know that if they come to the UK illegally, they cannot stay here.

Following further positive discussions between the two countries after the Supreme Court judgment, and building on months of work between the two countries, the Treaty responds directly to the conclusions of the Supreme Court and presents a new long-term solution.

The landmark Treaty is binding in international law and ensures that people relocated to Rwanda under the Partnership are not at risk of being returned to a country where their life or freedom would be threatened – an act known as refoulement.

It also enhances the functions of the independent Monitoring Committee to ensure compliance with the obligations in the Treaty, such as reception conditions, processing of asylum claims, and treatment and support for individuals including up to 5 years after they have received final determination of their status. The Committee is made up of 8 independent members.

The Monitoring Committee will also develop a system which will enable relocated individuals and legal representatives to lodge confidential complaints directly to them. It will have the power to set its own priority areas for monitoring, and have unfettered access for the purposes of completing assessments and reports. It may publish reports as it sees fit on its findings.

To further bolster assurances that relocated individuals will not be returned, under the Treaty, Rwanda’s asylum system will be strengthened through a new Appeal Body. The Appeal Body will consist of a Rwandan and other Commonwealth national Co-President, and be composed of judges from a mixture of nationalities with asylum and humanitarian protection expertise (appointed by the Co-Presidents) to hear individual appeals.”

I and my friends will be looking  carefully at the text of the Treaty and at the draft legislation which will be needed to ensure the Rwanda policy can proceed without further interruption by UK Courts. The government believes that if it can send some migrants to Rwanda the numbers wishing to come to the UK illegally will drop substantially. To achieve this the government will need to assert the supremacy of the law established by Parliament over other legal interventions.

Dear Correspondent,

Thank you for your email. Like you I am most concerned about the deaths in the Hamas/Israel war and support the diplomatic initiatives being undertaken to limit civilian deaths, to pause the fighting  and to allow humanitarian aid.

The UK government seeks to influence Israel alongside the USA to avoid civilian casualties and to ensure humanitarian  supplies enter Gaza. The US and UK have been seeking humanitarian pauses to the fighting. The UK government assists  the Qataris who are best placed to help both sides reach an agreement. A ceasefire can only happen when the two combatants agree one. To agree a  ceasefire  requires more work by those neutral and trusted intermediaries locally and a change of view of the two sides. I hope they can achieve a breakthrough.   I will put your strong concerns to the UK government.

Yours sincerely