The world must say that Taliban rule is already unacceptable in Afghanistan. A country should not block its citizens from taking civilian flights to places that will accept them. A government in waiting  should not so terrify many of its citizens that they queue up at an airport to try to get a flight  to anywhere that  might take them. It is tragic that they live  in the hope they can start a new life somewhere else with nothing more than a suitcase of personal items to show for  their life to date. Nor should those who claim to have control allow chaos to make the suicide bomber’s task easier. The sad deaths in Kabul yesterday made the tragedy worse.

We should not regard it as a norm that civilian aviation is cut off from a country, or that a group of armed individuals can settle the fate of thousands of people wanting to move by making instant judgements with a gun pointing at the applicant. One of the most attractive features of advanced democracies is the ability and right to travel freely within your own country or to leave it to go to anywhere which will let  you in without  needing permission.

There are some in the UK who think we should be willing to take tens of thousands of Afghans who would like to leave their country now. I strongly support the heroic efforts of our troops and border staff in seeking to get all UK citizens home who wish to come, and to give free passage and the right to live and work in the UK to all those who worked for our government and military in the past and are now at risk  because of that. I am  not convinced that it would be right to make a wider offer to Afghans more generally to come to the UK.

The first sad truth is we will only get a limited  number of people out in the time left with access to a runway and with permission to fly in and out to pick people up, a right we have to share with our allies who all need to do the same. The second is even if we offered more places to Afghans to come and could find a safer route to let them do so we could only ever offer it to a small fraction of the 40 million living in Afghanistan today. Helping cream off more of the bright and motivated people with more liberal views from the society will make the plight of the millions who remain worse. The Taliban might behave even more unpleasantly  if too many more Afghans are assisted out.  We would wish to make sure that anyone invited to live and work in  the UK can do so with a decent living standards. We are already very short of homes, and there are limits to how many more we can house from  overseas to acceptable standards.

There is no alternative to working with the world community to try to prevent the return of the Taliban to the barbarism of their past. The former policy which President Biden undermined of assisting  a far from perfect democratic government in Afghanistan to widen human rights and raise living standards made sense and was working to some extent. Given the way an armed group has displaced an elected government, we have to accept that our influence is much less. However, all the time the Taliban led country needs western currency and goods and expects some continuation  of aid and technical support there is the basis for some agreements to try to limit the damage. It is also the case that countries with more influence than us like Pakistan and China need to be brought into the conversations, as they too should not want a rogue state that harbours terrorists who might harm  them as well.

We cannot afford to spend around £10 bn a year subsidising the railway to run nearly empty trains around the country. Nor is it a green option to run diesels and electrics  drawing some electricity from fossil fuels when they have so few people on them.

The railway management need to use the current lull in railway use to make two important sets of changes. The first is to establish new timetables geared to the big change in work patterns COVID policies have brought on. The railway is currently planned  to earn much of its fares revenue from five day a week commuters wishing to travel at peak times. This business will be massively  reduced. We need new flexible ticketing to allow people rolling and increasing discounts the more they travel the same route for work purposes.  The railway is now trying to tempt many more people to travel by train for leisure. It is difficult to see why this should be highly subsidised as it is discretionary and is more likely to be taken up by the better off.

The second set of issues are based on technology. Modern trains can be more  fully automated in ways which may enhance safety and certainly raise productivity. Safety must remain the prime consideration.  Managements need to sort out with the Unions new manning arrangements that reflect business needs, timetable changes  and train automation opportunities.  There can be offers of no compulsory redundancies around programmes of change to get the workforce and its skills and job descriptions  into line with new needs.

Doubtless many of you still think HS2 should be cancelled. There is no sign of the government wishing to do this, and it has now committed substantial resource to carving an expensive route out of London. I am not expecting a change of decision on the London to Birmingham part of this  project.

Many former commuters seem to be singing “I don’t want to go to work on a train in the rain” to adapt on old pop  song parody.  It seems increasingly clear that the COVID  lockdowns have  made something snap in many five day a week train commuters minds. They have discovered they can do much of their job from home.

They have saved  serious money on not buying season tickets. Above  all they have been spared the difficult local roads to the station, the fight for a car park place and ticket and the lottery of getting a seat on the train.All  that  strain and worry has gone out of life.

On that busy office day will the train come on time? On the morning when you need to meet the boss will your train be delayed by leaves  on the line or the late arrival of the train in front? Will you get drenched walking from the station to the office? Going home might you have one of those nightmare journeys when you are stuck in a stationery train for too long, ringing home to apologise and say you haven’t a clue when you will make it back.

Many commuters with all too many memories of late and cancelled trains, an absence of seats and a dearth of reliable information about what has gone wrong suddenly see the chance to duck out of many of those journeys and opt for a different working life. It looks as if many offices will be adapted for hybrid working with many more people logging in remotely. Employers who may prefer more to come and work in the office will decide that to keep some of the best talent they need to be flexible. They will decide to downsize their floor space to get a property saving out of the change.

All this will knock a big hole in railway revenues. I will look at what government should do with the trains in a later post. The commuter revolt is the result of poor and expensive services over many past years.

In their March forecast this year the Office of Budget Responsibility stated that the UK government would borrow an additional £354.6bn in the year ending that same month. The latest government figures for what they actually borrowed was £298 bn. So the outturn was £56.6bn or 16% lower than the official OBR forecast. They underestimated revenue and overestimated spending.

The latest figures we have are for July, one third of the way through the new financial year. In March the OBR forecast £233.9bn of extra government borrowing this year. The July figures saw the actual borrowing fall by more than £10bn that month or almost a half of the July 2020 total. Once again spending was lower and revenue higher than official forecasts. If the economy records similar progress from here as over the first four months of the financial year there will be another welcome substantial undershoot of the OBR estimates for the current year.

These large changes to forecast matter, as it shows the Chancellor is called to make judgements about spending, taxing and debt based on a model of the economy which tends to pessimism on both spending and revenue outturns. The model seems to be pessimistic about the ability of the UK economy to recover, and shy of accepting that the best way to get the deficit down is faster growth. Revenues are highly sensitive to extra activity, as the huge increases in Stamp duty receipts and taxes on entrepreneurial activities demonstrate this July.

I share the OBR and Treasury wish to get the deficit down, but I want to get it down by cutting the need for special spending to offset a weak economy and lockdown costs, and seeing revenues rise thanks to more activity. Of course government also needs to manage the large pubic sector well and avoid waste and low productivity. That requires daily action by Ministers and  senior officials over a range of activities, which I will be exploring from time to time in specialist pieces here. The message today is lifting lockdown restrictions ahs boosted revenues and cut public spending for the right reasons. We need more and faster growth to bring the deficit down further.

I set out below the latest WBC release on improved traffic management:

£250,000 funding win for smart traffic lights and crossing sensors

Wokingham Borough Council has been awarded £250,000 for smart traffic lights and crossings across the area. The Department for Transport gave the grant to support the use of new technology to cut congestion across the area, as well as reducing journey times and emissions.

Smart traffic light schemes are earmarked for ten locations across the borough. These will be more responsive than the current systems and will change as the traffic demands depending on the time of day. Another 39 locations will also see upgrades, covered through the council’s congestion management budget.

Forty locations will see smart crossing technologies installed. Push button traffic light crossings will be replaced with ones triggered by sensors, which will help with Covid-safe use of these going forward. These also have audio speakers, to support visually impaired residents.

This is part of the council’s wider plans to keep to the borough moving smoothly and cut congestion across the area. The funding will support schemes to cut congestion and build intelligent traffic schemes using technology.

The electronic systems will take data from sensors, lampposts and signs to identify in real time where problems are and solve them before they build up. These new signals, including those funded by the Department for Transport grant, will react to traffic in real time to help manage capacity on the borough’s roads.

Cllr Pauline Jorgensen, executive member for highways and transport, said: “We continue to work hard towards our priority of cutting congestion across our borough by making the most of smart technology. This funding award recognises the Department for Transport supporting us towards our goals and acknowledging our plans to do this as innovative and forward thinking.”

At 18 locations the council will take the opportunity to switch the traffic signals to be more energy efficient, with different types of low-voltage bulbs installed. LED bulbs will be used instead of halogen, which helps the council towards its goal of net zero carbon by 2030. These require less maintenance, are more reliable and cost less, as well as reducing energy consumption by about 78 per cent.

To support its air quality targets, the council will use almost a third of the Government funding to install air quality sensors at eight traffic light locations.  These will be used to improve evaluation of traffic management across the area, with air quality data being factored into future decisions.

The funding was announced earlier this month by Transport Secretary, Grant Shapps. The package will see councils across England receive a share of £15 million in government funding to improve their traffic light systems to cut congestion, boost safety and reduce journey times and emissions – a commitment set out in the recently announced Transport decarbonisation plan.

– ENDS –

Further information:

1. More from Cllr Pauline Jorgensen, executive member for highways and transport, on jorgensen@wokingham.gov.uk
2. Alternatively contact the communications, engagement and marketing team via CEM@wokingham.gov.uk

Read the full Department for Transport announcement via https://www.gov.uk/government/news/multimillion-pound-initiative-to-improve-local-roads-across-england