The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) uses information from the national population projections produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for a variety of client work.

ONS has just published its new 2018-based population projections. GAD will consider these to inform assumptions around our work, for example in modelling future contribution income and benefit outgoings of the National Insurance Fund. Other government departments use the projections for planning purposes and policy development

Population figures

The ONS figures provide an overall indication of the future size and age structure of the UK and its constituent countries. The information, which is based on a set of assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration, is central to much of GAD’s work.

These latest figures predict an increase of 3 million people over the next 10 years, to 2028. It also anticipates around 1 in 5 people will be over the state pension age by the same year.

Mortality insights

The projections are important for GAD when it comes to both public sector schemes and many of the other pension schemes that we advise.

Projected mortality rates are used to model future income and benefit outgo for public sector and other pension schemes we advise. The way these mortality rates are assumed to change over time is generally based on the rates of change from the population projections. Up to now GAD has been using the ONS 2016-based projections.

New projections

GAD actuaries will consider the information underlying the 2018-based projections in reviewing our assumptions about future mortality rates.
We’ll also use this information in the next Mortality Insights bulletin. This is published twice a year and provides succinct and accessible information on developments in the area of longevity research.

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) has been detected for the first time in ticks in the UK. The findings are part of ongoing research by Public Health England (PHE) and the Emerging and Zoonotic Infections National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit at the University of Liverpool.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is an infection spread by tick bites and is endemic in mainland Europe and Scandinavia, as well as Asia.

Most people who catch TBE will not have any symptoms – though it can cause flu-like symptoms, and in a small number of cases can progress to more serious disease involving the central nervous system.

The virus has been detected in a small number of ticks in Thetford Forest and an area on the border between Hampshire and Dorset. Further work is under way to identify the distribution of TBEV infected tick populations.

Earlier this year a European visitor became ill after being bitten by a tick in the New Forest area. This is considered to be a highly probable case of tick borne encephalitis (TBE). The patient, who was reported to PHE through the European Early Warning and Response System (EWRS), has since made a full recovery.

To date, no other cases of TBE considered likely to have been acquired in the UK have been identified. The risk from TBEV is currently assessed as very low for the general population.

Dr Nick Phin, Deputy Director, National Infections Service, Public Health England, said:

Tick-borne encephalitis virus, which is endemic in many European countries, has been found for the first time in a very small number of ticks in 2 locations in England. These are early research findings and indicate the need for further work, however, the risk to the general public is currently assessed to be very low.

Ticks carry a number of infections including Lyme disease, so we are reminding people to be ‘tick aware’ and take tick precautions, particularly when visiting or working in areas with long grass such as woodlands, moorlands and parks.

Contact your GP or dial 111 if you begin to feel unwell with flu-like symptoms following a tick bite.

Lyme disease remains the most common tick borne infection in the UK, and the risk of acquiring Lyme substantially outweighs that of acquiring TBEV.

Ticks are found throughout the year – but are most active between spring and autumn.

Tick bite risks and prevention of lyme disease contains advice on tick avoidance measures for the public.

A new drive to crack down on all forms of serious and organised crime will begin today with the launch of a wide-ranging formal review.

It will look to identify ways of bolstering the response to threats such as county lines, people trafficking, drugs, child sexual exploitation, fraud and illicit finance.

According to the National Crime Agency (NCA), which is the lead law enforcement agency for tackling this threat, there are more than 4,500 serious and organised crime groups in the UK and this type of crime costs the economy an estimated £37 billion a year.

These criminals exploit the most vulnerable people in society for their own financial gain, from victims of modern slavery and human trafficking to young people suffering sexual exploitation and abuse.

The review – the first of its type to look at the full spectrum of serious and organised crime – will be led by Sir Craig Mackey QPM, former deputy commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, with support from stakeholders and advisors from law enforcement and national security.

The review will consider the powers, capabilities, governance and funding required to tackle today’s threats across law enforcement and the justice system in England and Wales – including the NCA, local police forces and regional organised crime units.

Sir Craig will deliver the report to Brandon Lewis, Minister for Security, in Spring 2020. His recommendations will cover the status, roles and responsibilities of the NCA, regional organised crime units, and other national agencies pursuing serious criminality, along with local police forces in England and Wales, to ensure they have the right governance, support and legal powers to deliver on their missions.

Home Secretary Priti Patel said:

This review will help strengthen our response to these sickening crimes, building on the existing success of the NCA.

The threat is growing, and offenders are becoming more sophisticated. Serious and organised criminals exploit children and ruthlessly target the most vulnerable in our society, ruining lives and blighting communities.

We are committed to tackling crime and keeping our streets safe and I’m glad Sir Craig will bring his significant expertise and experience to this review, which will help ensure our system is fit for the modern world.

Minister for Security Brandon Lewis said:

This ambitious review will ensure that the NCA and the police have the right tools, leadership and funding to improve our national response to serious and organised crime.

This is a complex problem. Fraudsters, county lines gangs and child abusers all prey on the vulnerable and we must do more to tackle these nefarious activities. The NCA and police have my full and continued support in the excellent work that they do to combat these evildoers.

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Sajid Javid, said:

Serious and organised crime is a growing, sophisticated threat we are determined to tackle by bolstering our response.

In addition, I was proud to fund the first of our 20,000 new police officers at the Spending Round to help keep the public safe.

The review will support the implementation of the Serious and Organised Crime Strategy, published in November 2018, which sets out measures to build the UK’s defences against this type of crime, track down the most dangerous and determined criminals and bring them to justice.

A total of £90 million was allocated from the police funding settlement over the course of 2019-20 to build capabilities at national, regional and local levels to tackle serious and organised crime. An additional £30m of new funding is helping to tackle child sexual exploitation. Meanwhile, 20,000 new police officers are being recruited to help make our streets safer.

Sir Craig Mackey said:

Serious and organised crime includes some of the worst offences that people can perpetrate against each other and corrodes our communities.

It is a privilege to be asked by the Government to consider how we might improve the response to this.

I am looking forward to engaging with the professionals across the system who work tirelessly to keep us safe from these criminals to understand how we might enable them to do even more to protect the public and bring criminals to justice.

The aim is to continue our commitment to the promotion of the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. The activity has the support of businesses and different key actors involved in fostering prosperity in Guatemala.

The Embassy invited Dr Rajiv Maher British expert and international associate in the extractive and agro industrial sectors in human rights and sustainable development; he has conducted human rights impact assessments with a special focus on security and community engagement for prosperity.

During his visit, Dr Maher delivered a workshop for journalists to improve reporting on business and human rights and discuss the ethics of reporting on large-investment projects, an effort linked to the UK’s commitment on improving Media Freedom. A workshop with young indigenous leaders is to be held jointly with OXFAM, to discuss social licence and the impact of projects in communities. Finally, he will guide a roundtable discussion with private sector to share experiences on human rights by local business.

The main event of the week is a Business and Human Rights Forum, based on the forums held every year in Switzerland. This is a joint initiative by the European Union, Advocacy for Business and Human Rights (ABHR), the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and the British Embassy. Participants will include: Anabella Sibrián, International Platform against Impunity; Lucrecia Hernández Mack, Congresswoman elect; Jordán Rodas, Human Rights Ombudsman and Connie de Paiz, President of the Guatemalan Association of Exporters.

The panel discussion between civil society, public and private sector is going to be an opportunity to promote a safe space to have a constructive dialogue and compare the challenges that all sectors face when implementing the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. The panel will share concerns, risks and possible solutions, and actions to move from a passive State to a preventive and active State.

Barbara Amono-Oceng, Deputy Head of Mission for the British Embassy to Guatemala, said:

We want to foster dialogue spaces in which we can boost the cultural change that allows us to lay the foundation for a sustainable development, equality and respect for human rights.

Marian Campbell, M.A., F.S.A. is a specialist in enamels, jewellery and the decorative arts of the middle ages, and in base and precious metalwork of all periods. For much of her career she was on the staff of the Victoria & Albert Museum, latterly as Senior Curator of Metalwork. Her books include Medieval European Jewellery (2009), Marcy, oggetti d’arte, co-authored with Claude Blair (2009), Decorative Ironwork (1997), and Medieval Enamels (1983). She has contributed to many major exhibition catalogues, notably Gothic art in England (V&A 2002) and The Age of Chivalry (Royal Academy 1987-8). She now lectures and writes, most recently on ‘Sacred Silver and metalwork’ in Buckfast Abbey-a history (published 2017), and ‘Metalwork in Durham Cathedral’, for the Durham Cathedral History (published 2015). Her current research focuses on three areas, medieval Limoges enamels found in England, European goldsmiths’ work in the middle ages, and the world of collecting, dealing, and faking in nineteenth-century Paris and London. She is a Freeman of the Worshipful Company of Ironmongers.

This role is not remunerated. This reappointment has been made in accordance with the Cabinet Office’s Governance Code on Public Appointments. The process is regulated by the Commissioner for Public Appointments. The Government’s Governance Code requires that any significant political activity undertaken by an appointee in the last five years is declared. This is defined as including holding office, public speaking, making a recordable donation or candidature for election. Marian has made no such declarations.