The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (January 31) the advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2023.
According to the advance estimates, GDP increased by 4.3% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2023 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 4.1% in the third quarter. For 2023 as a whole, GDP increased by 3.2% in real terms over 2022.
Analysed by major GDP component, private consumption expenditure (PCE) increased by 3.5% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2023 over a year earlier, after the increase of 6.2% in the third quarter. For 2023 as a whole, PCE increased by 7.4% in real terms over 2022.
Government consumption expenditure (GCE) measured in national accounts terms recorded a decline of 5.2% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2023 from a year earlier, compared with the decrease of 4.0% in the third quarter. For 2023 as a whole, GCE decreased by 4.3% in real terms from 2022.
Gross domestic fixed capital formation (GDFCF) increased by 15.7% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2023 over a year earlier, following the increase of 21.8% in the third quarter. For 2023 as a whole, GDFCF increased by 10.6% in real terms over 2022.
Over the same period, total exports of goods measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 2.8% in real terms over a year earlier, as against the decrease of 8.7% in the third quarter. Imports of goods measured in national accounts terms grew by 3.9% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2023, as against the 6.1% decline in the third quarter. For 2023 as a whole, total exports of goods and imports of goods recorded decreases of 10.3% and 8.5% respectively in real terms from 2022.
Exports of services rose by 22.1% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2023 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 23.2% in the third quarter. Imports of services increased by 27.4% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2023, after the increase of 28.9% in the third quarter. For 2023 as a whole, exports of services and imports of services recorded increases of 21.2% and 26.0% respectively in real terms over 2022.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis, GDP increased by 0.5% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2023 when compared with the third quarter.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that the Hong Kong economy continued to revive in the fourth quarter of 2023, with inbound tourism and private consumption remaining the key drivers. According to the advance estimates, real GDP grew by 4.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023 over a year earlier, after increasing by 4.1% in the preceding quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP rose by 0.5% in the fourth quarter, further to 0.3% growth in the preceding quarter.
For 2023 as a whole, real GDP resumed growth of 3.2%, following a contraction of 3.7% in 2022. Exports of services staged a strong rebound, thanks to the revival of visitor arrivals after the resumption of normal travel with the Mainland and the rest of the world. Private consumption expenditure turned to a notable increase after the removal of anti-epidemic measures, supported by rising household income and the Government's various initiatives. Overall investment expenditure reverted to growth in tandem with the economic recovery. Yet, total exports of goods fell further amid the challenging external environment.
Looking ahead, the difficult external environment will continue to pose pressures on Hong Kong's exports of goods in 2024. The situation may stabilise later in the year if advanced economies cut interest rates as expected. Meanwhile, visitor arrivals should increase further as handling capacity continues to recover, with additional boost from the Government's efforts to promote mega events. Together with the Government's various measures, rising household income should continue to support private consumption. Fixed asset investment should also grow further alongside continued economic growth, though the tight financial conditions may remain a constraint for the time being.
The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2023, as well as the real GDP growth forecast for 2024 will be released on February 28, 2024 when the 2024-25 Budget is announced.
Further information
The year-on-year percentage changes of GDP and selected major expenditure components in real terms from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023 are shown in Table 1.
When more data become available, the C&SD will compile revised figures on GDP. The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2023 will be released at the C&SD website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/scode250.html) and the Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Component report (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1030001&scode=250) on February 28, 2024.
For enquiries about statistics on GDP by expenditure component, please contact the National Income Branch (1) of the C&SD (Tel: 2582 5077 or email: gdp-e@censtatd.gov.hk).