Provisional statistics of retail sales for March 2019
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (May 3).
The value of total retail sales in March 2019, provisionally estimated at $39.7 billion, edged down by 0.2% compared with the same month in 2018. The revised estimate of the combined value of total retail sales in January and February 2019 decreased by 1.6% compared with the same period a year earlier. For the first quarter of 2019, it was provisionally estimated that the value of total retail sales decreased by 1.2% compared with the same period in 2018.
After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the provisional estimate of the volume of total retail sales in March 2019 decreased by 0.8% compared with a year earlier. The revised estimate of the combined volume of total retail sales in January and February 2019 decreased by 1.9% compared with the same period a year earlier. For the first quarter of 2019, the provisional estimate of the total retail sales decreased by 1.6% in volume compared with the same period in 2018.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet in descending order of the provisional estimate of the value of sales and comparing March 2019 with March 2018, the value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts decreased by 2.6%. This was followed by sales of wearing apparel (-2.3% in value); electrical goods and other consumer durable goods, not elsewhere classified (-15.6%); books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (-2.5%); and optical shops (-5.7%).
On the other hand, the value of sales of commodities in supermarkets increased by 3.3% in March 2019 over a year earlier. This was followed by sales of medicines and cosmetics (+2.5% in value); commodities in department stores (+5.0%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+3.6%); other consumer goods, not elsewhere classified (+7.2%); motor vehicles and parts (+0.2%); fuels (+6.4%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+7.1%); furniture and fixtures (+4.3%); and Chinese drugs and herbs (+1.0%).
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the provisional estimate of the value of total retail sales increased by 1.0% in the first quarter of 2019 over the preceding quarter, while the provisional estimate of the volume of total retail sales increased by 0.2%.
These retail sales statistics measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments and are primarily intended for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services (such as those on housing, catering, medical care and health services, transport and communication, financial services, education and entertainment) which account for over 50% of the overall consumer spending. Moreover, they include spending on goods in Hong Kong by visitors but exclude spending outside Hong Kong by Hong Kong residents. Hence they should not be regarded as indicators for measuring overall consumer spending.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the data series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product published at quarterly intervals. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether locally or abroad. Please refer to the C&SD publication "Gross Domestic Product (Quarterly)" for more details.
Commentary
A government spokesman said that retail sales declined slightly on a year-on-year basis in March and in the first quarter as a whole, reflecting the cautious consumption sentiment amid various external uncertainties. Nevertheless, the decline in March narrowed somewhat from that in January and February combined.
The spokesman pointed out further that, looking forward, retail sales business should continue to be affected by various external uncertainties in the near term, but the largely stable labour market and the sustained growth in inbound tourism should provide some support. The Government will closely monitor the situation.
Further information
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for February 2019 as well as the provisional figures for March 2019. The provisional figures on the value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet as well as the corresponding year-on-year changes for the first quarter of 2019 are also shown.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for February 2019 as well as the provisional figures for March 2019. The provisional figures on year-on-year changes for the first quarter of 2019 are also shown.
Table 3 shows the movements of the value and volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0, which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes.
More detailed statistics are given in the "Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales". Users can download this publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp320.jsp?productCode=B1080003). Alternatively, the historical series of retail sales statistics can be downloaded in the form of a statistical table at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp320.jsp?productCode=D5600089).
Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of C&SD (Tel: 3903 7400; email: mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).