CAIRO: A major Egyptian army exercise near the border with Libya is being viewed by military and strategic experts as a message of deterrence to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan over his backing for the Government of National Accord led by Prime Minister Fayez Al-Sarraj and supported by militia groups.

The combat exercise, codenamed “Hasm 2020” (Firmness 2020), was carried out by Egypt’s Western Region units together with armed forces formations and special troops, including paratroops and SEAL teams.

The drills included strategic incursions by land forces and land-sea operations by troops in coastal areas of the Western Region near the border with Libya. Other exercises focused on the threat from mercenary or terror groups.

Air defense and artillery maneuvers were also carried out during the exercises, which lasted several days. 

African affairs and national security expert Gen. Mohammed Abdel-Wahed said the Hasm 2020 exercise “carries many internal and external messages of assurance to our brothers in Libya and deterrence to some regional parties.”

The drill “was a message of deterrence to anyone who thinks he can threaten Egyptian national security” and “a simulation of war,” he added.

According to an army statement, the drill’s main phase was attended by Egyptian Minister of Defense Mohamed Zaki, and included live artillery and weapons fire.

Strategic expert Gen. Samir Farag said: “What happened was not an ordinary drill because the forces attacked mercenaries. Our army always fights a regular army. What is different about this drill is training to combat mercenaries. One of the training tasks is to carry out attacks to eliminate mercenaries in cooperation with the air force.”

Farag said the drill “is a message that we will operate on the coasts if they are under threat.”

He said the Egyptian air force succeeded in providing air supplies, “meaning that we have forces capable of going anywhere.”

Farag said that the Western Region had been carefully selected as a location for the exercises.

“We closely monitor any drill carried out by any of our enemies,” he said, adding that Hasm 2020 had been studied and followed up by some countries in the region. 

Egyptian MP and journalist Mustafa Bakry said that “every Egyptian should be proud of their armed forces and their extensive preparation to counter any attack on Egypt or threaten its national security.”

Bakry said that Hasm 2020 sent “a clear message to anyone who attempts to threaten Egypt or its people.”

The Libyan cities of Sirte and Al-Jufra are a red line, he said, adding that “Egypt will never leave Libya and its brotherly people as an easy prey to the Turkish invader.”

LONDON: Explosions in western Tehran resulting in power outage. A fire at a ballistic-missile production facility. A deadly blast at a medical clinic in the Iranian capital’s north. Huge floods at one of the country’s most important shipping hubs.

These apparently isolated recent incidents, mainly at military, nuclear, and industrial facilities, have been either subjected to cover-ups by Tehran or explained away as unfortunate accidents.

But when a blast on July 2 crippled the Natanz nuclear research facility in Isfahan, Iran was forced to come clean and admit that the showpiece of its nuclear-enrichment program was the target of an act of sabotage.

Experts have told Arab News that this admission has thrown into question the whole series of events. They said that what initially could have been a string of ill-timed separate incidents was starting to look like a coordinated campaign of cyber and psychological warfare. The real questions, to them, were: How impactful has the campaign been, who is behind it, and how will the regime respond?

Olli Heinonen, a senior adviser on science and nonproliferation at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that whoever was responsible for the Natanz sabotage was sending Iran a message.

The attack, he added, would not have “been possible without detailed knowledge on the design and operations of the workshops.”

This “sends a stern message to the nuclear and missile programs: Their operations and goals are not secret.”

Whoever was responsible, Heinonen said, may not be finished yet. “The hitting of the assembly plant of the advanced centrifuges is likely a warning shot only.”

As if on cue, electricity reportedly got cut off after a large explosion hit a suburb west of Tehran on Friday in a missile facility of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iranian officials denied the report. Another mysterious explosion had been reported just three days before, on July 7, at a factory south of Tehran.

While the full picture has yet to emerge of the damage caused by the blast at Natanz, it may have set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions by up to two years.

The 2015 nuclear deal, JCPOA (joint comprehensive plan of action), reached between Iran and six world powers allowed only enrichment of uranium at Natanz with just over 5,000 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges, but Iran has installed new cascades of advanced centrifuges after US President Donald Trump’s administration withdrew from the accord in 2018 and reinstated economic sanctions.

Iran, which said it would not negotiate as long as the sanctions remained in place, has repeatedly threatened to continue building up what it calls a defensive missile capability run by the IRGC.

Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said: “It is difficult to interpret recent incidents at Iran’s nuclear facilities as anything but coherent and sustained acts of sabotage conducted by state actors.”

Referring to the Natanz blast and the other explosions and fires, he added: “There is a pattern.” This pattern stretched back years, and has used cyberattacks, sabotage, and targeting of scientists to curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

As for the culprit, Alfoneh believes it “makes very good sense” that Tehran’s arch-nemesis Israel could be behind the attacks on nuclear and missile facilities. Israeli statements, he said, “give further credence to these allegations.”

Israel is just one of a number of enemies of the regime who may now be targeting Iran, Theodore Karasik, senior adviser at Gulf State Analytics, told Arab News.

His understanding of the situation, largely in line with Alfoneh’s assessment, is that the blast at the Natanz nuclear facility was most likely “a cyberattack by Israel.”

However, he said: “Were all of the attacks by Israel? That is the question we’re not clear on, and that’s where it gets interesting.”

Karasik pointed out that Tehran also had domestic adversaries with their own grouses. “There’s messaging that a group attached to the (Iranian ethnic minority) Baluch people could be responsible. With Baluch sentiments inflamed, the ethnic minority have at times been used by outside forces as another way to undermine Iran,” he added.

A number of attacks targeting the IRGC personnel and military infrastructure have been claimed by Baluch groups in the past few years. They have not, however, come forward to claim responsibility for the latest series of incidents in Iran.

“Overall, we can say someone is using various tactics — external cyberattacks, internal sabotage — to hit Iran right now, and it’s part of a larger pattern,” Karasik said.

Much of the discussion surrounding the series of attacks has revolved around cyber warfare. Karasik believes this is a central part of the campaign by whoever is targeting the Islamic Republic.

Someone is telling Iran: We know where you live, we know your weak spots, and if we need to hurt you, we can.

Yossi Mekelberg, associate fellow at Chatham House

“To cause explosions, to make something stop operating — this is very sophisticated in terms of cyber warfare. It’s one thing to shut down a street or a factory; it’s another issue to actually detonate something,” he added.

The technological sophistication points to Israeli cyber sabotage. Israel has long employed cyberattacks as a means of targeting Iran’s nuclear and military capacity, famously unleashing the Stuxnet attack which set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions by up to five years.

The emerging consensus among Iran watchers such as Karasik is that Israel was likely responsible for some, if not all, of the recent major disruptions that have struck Iran. The question then, is how Tehran will respond?

Tehran was patient and opportunistic, Karasik said, but “there is a danger that the tail may wag the dog.” As Tehran faced more domestic pressure and its legitimacy in the eyes of the people eroded further, the only way to prove its strength could be to lash out.

However, one of the advantages of using cyber warfare and other such clandestine means of undermining Iran, was that the attacks had plausible deniability, Yossi Mekelberg, associate fellow at Chatham House, told Arab News.

“It’s hard to definitively prove who was behind the attacks, so it does not force Iran to respond to preserve its legitimacy and save face,” he added.

But he warned that it was a “highly volatile” situation. “There is a danger of miscalculation — you’re guessing other peoples’ thresholds for retaliation and it’s easy to miscalculate. It’s a risky game.”

The strategy being employed against Iran, Heinonen, Mekelberg, and Karasik all agreed, was a psychological one. An outside power — which many suspect to be Israel — was sending a message to Iran.

Karasik said that someone had been “hammering away at specific targets related to Iran’s national security, creating an explosion here, a fire there. That has a psychological impact.”

Mekelberg added: “Someone is telling Iran: We know where you live, we know where your weak spots are, and if we need to hurt you, we can. It’s a show of force.”

Iran is upgrading its ballistic missile arsenal and investing heavily in obtaining nuclear weapons. It should come as no surprise then, that as its posture becomes ever more aggressive, its adversaries are sending a clear message that they will not stand for a nuclear-armed Iran.

The campaign of cyberattacks and sabotage is making that position abundantly clear.

——————

@CHamillStewart

AL-MUKALLA: Local health officials in Yemen have appealed to people to follow social-distancing rules and other precautionary advice related to COVID-19 as reports suggest the country’s death rates are falling.

Dr. Ishraq Al-Subaee, a spokesman for the Aden-based National Coronavirus Committee, said the spread of the pandemic has not slowed in Yemen despite reports of fewer COVID-19-related deaths in some areas, noting that a shortage of testing kits means the reported number of cases in Yemen is likely inaccurate.  

“I have recently seen that many people have abandoned their masks and joined large gatherings. There has been great awareness since the beginning of the pandemic and I hope people will remain vigilant so as not to lose (what we have gained),” she said.

Almost all Yemeni provinces have relaxed curfews and other measures imposed following the detection of the first case of COVID-19 in the country on April 10. People are now allowed to pray in mosques, visit markets and move between cities amid reports that death rates from COVID-19 and other diseases that hit Yemeni cities in May have fallen by 50 percent.

But Al-Subaee said hospitals in government-controlled areas are still reporting fresh cases and deaths, and warned people against thinking the pandemic is over.

On Thursday, the National Coronavirus Committee announced 38 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Yemen, 10 new deaths, and 24 recoveries, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 1,356, including 619 deaths and 361 recoveries.

Falling cases

In Aden, the international medical NGO Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) said on Friday that it would be reducing its activities in the southern port city of Aden due to a decrease in the numbers of patients visiting its centers.

“In light of the continuing reduction in the number of admissions to the two MSF COVID-19 treatment centers in Aden, MSF has taken the decision to combine its activities in one facility, “ the organization said in a statement.

MSF intervened in Aden in May when the city was hit by outbreaks of COVID-19 and other diseases that claimed the lives of more than 1,800 people, according to official figures.

While the numbers in Aden are decreasing, local authorities in the southeastern province of Hadramout have reintroduced a curfew in the city of Qaten as medical centers there have reported a surge in the number of COVID-19 cases in recent days.

In Al-Mukalla, Hadramout’s capital, doctors at Ibn Sina Hospital’s isolation center have gone on strike to protest their excessive workload and missed payments. Many doctors in Hadramout have refused to work in COVID-19 treatment facilities in the province, placing extra strain on the doctors on duty there.
   

ANKARA: The European Parliament has become increasingly critical about democratic backsliding in Turkey, with calls on Thursday for a complete end to accession negotiations with the country.

Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) said that Turkey should no longer receive pre-accession funding from the European Union budget as part of its candidacy process and for economic sanctions to be used as a stick against Ankara, which they called an “authoritarian regime.”

Although all EU governments would have to vote by a qualified majority to end Turkey’s 15-year-long stalled EU accession bid and cut funding programs, the escalating trend of criticism should be seen as a warning.

Last March the European Parliament also called for the suspension of EU accession talks with Turkey, over concerns about the violation of human rights and the rule of law. Ankara rejected the symbolic nonbinding resolution in favor of formally suspending EU accession talks with Turkey as “meaningless.”

Its Turkey rapporteur, Nacho Sanchez Amor, criticized the country for showing “constant distancing, underpinned by a lack of trust.”

“Namely in the accession process, with a huge backsliding in human rights; in the current customs union, while we are quarreling at the World Trade Organization; in the visa liberalization, on which Turkey still has to comply with benchmarks, or in migration where the EU is complying with commitments, but Turkey uses it for putting more pressure,” he said.

While Sanchez Amor emphasized the need for keeping the accession process alive to use as leverage for supporting Turkish society, the head of the European People’s Party Manfred Weber said accession negotiations with Turkey were a historical mistake and talks should be stopped.

Germany’s Left Party also called on Brussels to halt its arms exports to Turkey.

Laura Batalla Adam, secretary general of the European Union Turkey Forum, said relations between the two sides had been at their lowest point for several years now.

“The political situation in the country and its estrangement from EU values have been the main cause of concern for Brussels,” she told Arab News. “Turkey’s increasingly assertive foreign policy today is creating new frictions in the relationship.”

Batalla thought that the visit of Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, to Turkey this week signalled the bloc’s willingness to hear Ankara’s views on the pressing issues in its region.

“In times like these, dialogue is more important than ever. We need more cooperation rather than confrontation with Turkey,” she said. “However, this cooperation needs to be based on values and not only on interests. There is a will from both sides to make this happen but their success will depend on a true commitment,” Batalla added.

On Friday, the European Parliament gave the green light to earmark 485  million euros to Turkey for ensuring urgent humanitarian aid to refugees.

The EU had committed 6 billion euros in aid for the refugees being hosted in Turkey under a bilateral deal in March 2016.

However the full amount of aid is expected to be paid by 2025 – another point of friction between Ankara and Brussels. Turkey has accused Brussels of not fulfilling its promises for burden-sharing and for not taking any steps for achieving the pledged visa-free deal for Turkish citizens.

“The EP’s 2019 report on Turkey had also called for an end to accession negotiations,” Cigdem Nas, secretary general of the Istanbul-based Economic Development Foundation, told Arab News.

“The situation between Turkey and the EU has become even worse since then. In addition to problems related to democracy, rights and the rule of law in Turkey, geopolitical clashes in the Eastern Med, over Syria and Libya have further complicated Turkey-EU relations. The conflictual positions of some member states … over Turkey’s actions in the Eastern Med and Libya have led to a strong urge to counter and limit Turkey’s activism in the region.”

According to Nas, the recent events and debates in Turkey regarding further constraints on social media, interference in bar associations, and the status of the Hagia Sophia had also created additional concerns about the country’s political regime.

“It is no surprise that a majority of MEPs support a suspension or total ending of the accession process. In this regard the general affairs meeting which will be held on July 13 is also quite critical.”

But she believed that Turkey’s hosting of 3.5 million Syrian refugees and holding one of the major transit routes toward the EU would make it hard for the member states to antagonize Ankara by stopping the accession process.

“As for further sanctions, several sanctions have already been decided upon in 2019. The accession process is practically frozen, customs union modernization talks have not started, visa liberalization is at an impasse. The EU does not really have any tools to use in order to put pressure on Turkey.”

Nas said that the use of EU funds might become conditional upon the fulfilment of political criteria.

“Funds could be made available mostly to civil society, refugee and human rights organizations, but not state organs or ministries.”

BEIRUT: Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab is suing the American University of Beirut (AUB), where he worked for 35 years as an academic, a spokesman for Diab said, in a dispute over his exit package from the financially struggling institution.
AUB, which has been hit hard by Lebanon’s economic meltdown, declined to comment on the case.
Lebanon is grappling with a crisis caused by decades of state corruption and bad governance. A hard currency liquidity crunch has led to an 80% weakening of the local currency since October.
Diab presented his-long planned resignation in January – the month he became prime minister.
“… He asked for an exit package in line with common practices and precedents at AUB. This request was denied …,” the spokesman said.
Diab had “never made any special request for any payments to be made either in foreign currency or into foreign bank accounts. All AUB professors have their pensions paid in U.S. dollars, from a AUB foreign account”, the spokesman said.
“What the PM expressed was only what was already stated in the AUB retirement plan regulations and policies.”
The private AUB, founded in the 1860s, is alma mater of some of the Arab world’s leading figures in politics, medicine, law, science and art. Its president told Reuters in May Lebanon’s catastrophic collapse represented one of the biggest challenges in the history of a university which has weathered many crises, including Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war.
The state, which defaulted on its foreign currency debt in March, owes AUB’s medical centre – which attracts patients from across the Middle East and Central Asia – more than $150 million in arrears, AUB President Fadlo Khuri said.