Consumer Price Indices for October 2019 - Government World Magazine

The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (November 21) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for October 2019. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 3.1% in October 2019 over the same month a year earlier, slightly smaller than the corresponding increase (3.2%) in September 2019. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) in October 2019 was also 3.1%, slightly smaller than that in September 2019 (3.2%). The smaller increase in October was mainly due to the smaller increases in private housing rentals and prices of fresh fruit.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the three-month period ending October 2019 was 0.2%, the same as that for the three-month period ending September 2019. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the corresponding rates of increase were both 0.2%.

Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.5%, 3.1% and 2.9% respectively in October 2019, as compared to 3.5%, 3.1% and 3.0% respectively in September 2019. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.6%, 3.0% and 2.8% respectively in October 2019, as compared to 3.6%, 3.0% and 2.9% respectively in September 2019.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the three-month period ending October 2019, the average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were all 0.2%, same as those for the three-month period ending September 2019. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the three-month period ending October 2019 were all 0.2%, same as those rates of increase for the three-month period ending September 2019.

Amongst the various components of the Composite CPI, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in October 2019 for food (excluding meals bought away from home) (13.3%), miscellaneous goods (3.4%), housing (3.1%), miscellaneous services (2.6%), meals bought away from home (2.1%) and transport (2.1%).

On the other hand, year-on-year decreases in the components of the Composite CPI were recorded in October 2019 for electricity, gas and water (-5.8%); clothing and footwear (-3.5%); durable goods (-1.7%) as well as alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-0.6%).

Taking the first 10 months of 2019 together, the Composite CPI rose by 2.9% over a year earlier. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.3%, 2.7% and 2.6% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 3.0%, 3.5%, 2.8% and 2.6% respectively.

For the three months ending October 2019, the Composite CPI rose by 3.3% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 3.7%, 3.1% and 3.0% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 3.3%, 3.8%, 3.0% and 2.9% respectively.

For the 12 months ending October 2019, the Composite CPI was on average 2.8% higher than that in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.2%, 2.6% and 2.6% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 3.0%, 3.5%, 2.8% and 2.6% respectively.

Commentary

A Government spokesman said that the underlying consumer price inflation rate in October, at 3.1%, was marginally lower than in September. Price pressures on most major CPI components were largely moderate but food inflation remained high due to elevated pork prices.

Looking ahead, modest global inflation and subdued economic conditions should help contain overall inflation. Yet, inflation may stay somewhat elevated in the near term given the supply situation of fresh pork. The Government will continue to monitor the inflation situation closely, particularly the impact on the lower-income people.

Further information

The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for October 2019 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest three months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI and the underlying inflation rate are presented graphically in Chart 1.

More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison, seasonally adjusted data series and the CPIs by the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP)) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the October 2019 issue of the "Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index" (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=B1060001), the time series of CPIs at detailed level (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600001), the time series of CPIs at COICOP division level (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600002) and the time series of CPIs after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600003) free of charge at the website of the C&SD.

For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD (Tel: 3903 7374 or email: cpi@censtatd.gov.hk).