Winter 2018 Interim Economic Forecast: A solid and lasting expansion

This robust performance is set to continue in 2018 and 2019 with growth of 2.3% and 2.0% respectively in both the euro area and EU.

Valdis Dombrovskis, Vice-President for the Euro and Social Dialogue, also in charge of Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, said: The European economy is outperforming expectations and the robust growth is set to continue into next year. We should continue our work on ensuring that the benefits of this growth are felt by all Europeans. We should use this time to make our economies more resilient and deepen the Economic and Monetary Union.

Pierre Moscovici, Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs, said: “Europe’s economy has entered 2018 in robust health. The euro area is enjoying growth rates not seen since before the financial crisis. Unemployment and deficits continue to fall and investment is at last rising in a meaningful way. Economic growth is also more balanced than it was a decade ago – and provided we pursue smart structural reforms and responsible fiscal policies – it can also be more durable. This window of opportunity to reform will not remain open forever: the moment to take the necessary ambitious decisions to strengthen the Economic and Monetary Union is now.”

Growth is likely to remain solid

The 2.4% GDP growth now estimated for 2017 is above November’s Autumn Economic Forecast projections of 2.2% for the euro area and 2.3% for the EU. The growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have also been raised since November for both the euro area and EU economies: from 2.1% to 2.3% for this year and from 1.9% to 2.0% for 2019. This is a result of both stronger cyclical momentum in Europe, where labour markets continue to improve and economic sentiment is particularly high, and a stronger than expected pick-up in global economic activity and trade.

Strong demand, high capacity utilisation and supportive financing conditions are set to favour investment over the forecast horizon.

Inflation outlook remains subdued

Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and unprocessed food prices, is expected to stay subdued as labour market slack recedes only slowly and wage pressures remain contained. Headline inflation will continue to reflect the significant influence of energy prices and is forecast to rise modestly. Inflation in the euro area reached 1.5% in 2017. It is forecast to remain at 1.5% in 2018 and to increase to 1.6% in 2019.

Risks are balanced, with upside risks in the short term

Risks to this growth forecast remain broadly balanced. Economic growth could exceed expectations in the short term as indicated by the high level of sentiment. In the medium term, high global asset prices could be vulnerable to a re-assessment of risks and fundamentals. Downside risks related to the uncertain outcome of the Brexit negotiations remain, as do those associated with geopolitical tensions and a shift towards more inward looking and protectionist policies.

For the UK, a purely technical assumption for 2019

Given the ongoing negotiations on the terms of the UK withdrawal from the EU, our projections for 2019 are based on a purely technical assumption of status quo in terms of trading relations between the EU27 and the UK. This is for forecasting purposes only and has no bearing on the talks underway in the context of the Article 50 process.

Background

This forecast is based on a set of technical assumptions concerning exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices with a cut-off date of 26 January 2018. For all other incoming data, this forecast takes into consideration information up until 30 January 2018.

From this year, the European Commission will revert to publishing two comprehensive forecasts (spring and autumn) and two interim forecasts (winter and summer) each year, instead of the three comprehensive forecasts in winter, spring and autumn that it has produced each year since 2012.

The interim forecasts will cover annual and quarterly GDP and inflation for the current year and following years for all Member States and the euro area, as well as EU aggregates.

This change is a return to the Commission’s previous pattern of forecasts and brings the Commission’s forecast schedule back into line with those of other institutions (e.g. the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development).

For more information

-Full document: Winter 2018 Interim Economic Forecast

-Follow Vice-President Dombrovskis on Twitter: @VDombrovskis

-Follow Commissioner Moscovici on Twitter: @pierremoscovici

-Follow DG ECFIN on Twitter: @ecfin

-Press Release: Autumn 2017 Economic Forecast: continued growth in a changing policy context

-Full document: Autumn 2017 Economic Forecast




Daily News 07 / 02 / 2018

Brexit: European Commission publishes draft legal text on transitional arrangements

The European Commission has today published a draft text of the transitional arrangements to be included in the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement, following the United Kingdom’s request to remain in the Single Market and the Customs Union for a short time-limited period after its withdrawal from the European Union on 30 March 2019. Today’s text reflects the clear, detailed mandate provided to the Commission by the Member States on such possible transitional arrangements. In particular, it translates into legal terms the principles set out in the European Council guidelines of 29 April 2017 and 15 December 2017, as well as the negotiating directives adopted on 29 January 2018. As the UK will remain part of the Single Market and the Customs Union (with all four freedoms) until 31 December 2020, the UK will remain bound by EU law and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. Union acquis will continue to apply in full to and in the UK during this period. Any changes made to the acquis during this time should automatically apply. As the UK will be a third country as of 30 March 2019, it will no longer be represented in Union institutions, agencies, bodies and offices. The draft text (see here) will now be discussed amongst the EU27 Member States, before being formally transmitted to the United Kingdom. (For more information: Margaritis Schinas: +32 229 60524; Daniel Ferrie – Tel.: +32 229 86500)

State aid: Commission approves six electricity capacity mechanisms to ensure security of supply in Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy and Poland

The European Commission has approved under EU State aid rules electricity capacity mechanisms in Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy and Poland. The Commission found that the measures will contribute to ensuring security of supply whilst preserving competition in the Single Market. Commissioner Margrethe Vestager, in charge of competition policy, said: “Capacity mechanisms can help to safeguard security of electricity supply, but they must be designed so as to avoid distortions of competition in energy markets. I am glad that our close cooperation with national authorities has enabled us to today approve well-designed capacity mechanisms in six EU countries. They will foster competition among all potential capacity providers to the benefit of consumers and our European energy market.” Capacity mechanisms have the important objective of ensuring security of electricity supply. But if they are not well-designed they may cause higher electricity prices for consumers, give undue advantages to certain energy operators or hinder electricity flows across EU borders. That is why the Commission has, in close cooperation with the relevant national authorities, assessed six mechanisms in Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy and Poland to ensure they meet strict criteria under EU State aid rules, in particular the Commission’s 2014 Guidelines on State Aid for Environmental Protection and Energy. In this context, the Commission has also taken into account insights from its 2016 State aid sector inquiry on capacity mechanisms. The six capacity mechanisms approved today concern more than half of the EU population. They cover a range of different types of mechanism that address the specific need in each Member State. In the cases of Belgium and Germany, the Commission has authorised strategic reserves. Strategic reserves keep certain generation capacities outside the electricity market for operation only in emergencies. In the cases of Italy and Poland, the Commission has authorised market-wide capacity mechanisms. These can be necessary where electricity markets face structural security of supply problems. In the cases of France and Greece, the Commission has authorised capacity mechanisms specifically promoting demand response. Demand response schemes pay customers to reduce their electricity consumption in hours when electricity is scarce. The advantage of such schemes is that demand response operators may be able to react more quickly than electricity generators and are generally more environmentally friendly. Today’s decisions complement the Commission’s Energy Union Strategy to deliver secure, sustainable and competitive energy in Europe. For more information please see the full press release and factsheet. (For more information: Ricardo Cardoso – Tel.: +32 229 80100; Yizhou Ren – Tel.: +32 229 94889)

Twinning: 20 years of successfully sharing EU expertise through over 2700 projects

2018 marks the 20th anniversary of the European Commission’s Twinning instrument, one of the most successful and most used tools for supporting the European Union’s neighbouring countries and regions. With the recent launch of the newest Twinning project in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the total number of Twinning projects implemented in the past 20 years surpasses 2700 in this anniversary year. The new project aims to establish peer-to-peer, on the ground cooperation with the partner country’s Customs Administration in Skopje in order to simplify customs procedures and to create a business-friendly environment. Johannes Hahn, Commissioner for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, said: “The 20th anniversary of Twinning is an occasion to celebrate and to reflect on past achievements as well as on future perspectives. Over the past 20 years, more than 2700 Twinning projects have been successfully implemented, from reforming asylum legislation in Serbia to strengthening e-governance in Georgia. Encouraging peer-to-peer exchange, Twinning continues to provide invaluable added value in promoting modernisation, EU values and structural reforms efforts as well as in fostering change, stability, security and prosperity throughout the Neighbourhood and Enlargement regions.” The full press release is available online. (For more information: Maja Kocijančič – Tel.: +32 229 86570; Alceo Smerilli – Tel.:+32 229 64887)

Smarter use of EU resources: financial instruments in EU funds already halfway to target

New data uploaded on the Cohesion Open Data Platform show that half of the European Structural and Investment (ESI) Funds envelope planned to be invested via financial instruments over the 2014-2020 budget period has already been allocated to generate additional investment through financial products such as loans, guarantees or equity. By end 2016, already €10.3 billion from the ESI Funds was committed to such instruments, mostly for SME support, research and innovation and the low-carbon economy, out of a target of €21 billion. The new “financial instrument” data of the Cohesion Open Data Platform will enable viewers to follow the progress made towards the target on an annual basis and by country. Commissioner for Regional policy Corina Crețu said: “Over 76,000 businesses are currently supported by the European Structural and Investment Funds through financial instruments; these innovative tools have proven their ability to deliver for the maximum impact of EU resources on the ground, in line with the objective of President Juncker‘s Investment Plan.” Find the full summary of progress in ESI Funds investments via financial instruments here. (For more information: Johannes Bahrke – Tel.: +32 229 58615; Sophie Dupin de Saint-Cyr – Tel.: +32 229 56169)

Mergers: Commission approves Discovery’s acquisition of Scripps, subject to conditions; rejects referral request by Polish competition authority

The European Commission has approved, under the EU Merger Regulation, the proposed acquisition of Scripps by Discovery, both US based global media companies. The decision is conditional on full compliance with commitments offered by Discovery. Discovery and Scripps are both active as providers of basic pay-TV channels to TV distributors in the European Economic Area. Scripps is particularly active in the UK, where it operates UKTV jointly with the BBC; and in Poland, via TVN, a Polish media company acquired by Scripps in 2015.The Commission’s investigation found that i) in the UK, the proposed transaction would raise no competition issues given the limited overlap between the companies’ activities; and ii) in Poland, the proposed transaction risked increasing Discovery’s bargaining power vis-à-vis TV distributors because of the acquisition of certain channels that are particularly important in distributors’ basic pay-TV channel packages. To address the Commission’s competition concerns, Discovery committed to making TVN24 and TVN24 Bis available to current and future TV distributors in Poland for a reasonable fee determined by reference to comparable agreements. The Commission concluded that the proposed transaction, as modified by the commitments, would raise no competition concerns. The Commission has also rejected a request from Poland to refer the merger to the Polish competition authority for assessment under Polish competition law. A full press release is available in EN, DE, FR, PL. (For more information: Ricardo Cardoso – Tel.: +32 229 80100; Maria Sarantopoulou – Tel.: +32 229 13740)

Mergers: Commission to assess the acquisition of Shazam by Apple

The European Commission has accepted a request from Austria, France, Iceland, Italy, Norway, Spain and Sweden to assess under the EU Merger Regulation the proposed acquisition of Shazam by Apple. Apple’s proposed acquisition of Shazam does not meet the turnover thresholds set by the EU Merger Regulation for mergers that must be notified to the European Commission because they have an EU dimension. It was notified by Apple for regulatory clearance in Austria, where the transaction meets the national merger notification threshold. Austria submitted a referral request to the Commission pursuant to Article 22(1) of the EU Merger Regulation. On the basis of the elements submitted by Austria and the countries joining the referral request, and without prejudice to the outcome of its full investigation, the Commission considers that the transaction may have a significant adverse effect on competition in the European Economic Area. The Commission has also concluded that it is the best placed authority to deal with the potential cross-border effects of the transaction. The Commission will now ask Apple to notify the transaction. A full press release is available in EN, FR, DE, SV, IT. (For more information: Ricardo Cardoso – Tel.: +32 229 80100; Maria Sarantopoulou – Tel.: +32 229 13740)

Mergers: Commission approves the proposed acquisition of Abertis by Hochtief

The European Commission has cleared, under the EU Merger Regulation, the proposed acquisition of Abertis by Hochtief. Abertis manages and operates toll road infrastructure. Hochtief, ultimately controlled by the ACS Group, is mostly active in the construction sector. The Commission’s investigation focused on: i) the market for toll motorway concessions where the activities of ACS Group and Abertis overlap; ii) the market for the construction and maintenance of road infrastructure, since construction remains the core business of Hochtief and the ACS Group; and iii) other markets related to motorway concessions where Abertis is present, namely the distribution of on-board payment equipment, the provision of electronic toll collection systems and the concession of food services on motorway service areas. For all of these markets, the Commission found that the proposed transaction would raise no competition concerns and the merged entity would still face a number of strong competitors. The Commission also found that the market for toll motorway concessions is a highly regulated bidding market, further preventing the merged entity from weakening competition. Therefore, the Commission concluded that the proposed acquisition would not endanger competition in any of the markets concerned. A full press release is available in EN, DE, FR, ES. (For more information: Ricardo Cardoso – Tel.: +32 229 80100; Maria Sarantopoulou – Tel.: +32 229 13740)

 

Mergers: Commission clears acquisition of Eircom by Toohil Telecom

The European Commission has approved, under the EU Merger Regulation, the acquisition over Eircom Holdco of Luxembourg by Toohil Telecom of Ireland. Eircom is the former incumbent telecoms company of Ireland. Toohil Telecom is part of the group of companies controlled by Mr Xavier Niel, which also includes the French telecommunications operator Iliad. The Commission concluded that the proposed acquisition would raise no competition concerns because Mr Xavier Niel does not own any companies currently active in the telecommunications sector in Ireland. The transaction was examined under the simplified merger review procedure. More information is available on the Commission’s competition website, in the public case register under the case number M.8736. (For more information: Ricardo Cardoso – Tel.: +32 229 80100; Maria Sarantopoulou – Tel.: +32 229 13740)

ANNOUNCEMENTS

 

Commissioner Moscovici in Athens, Greece

Pierre Moscovici, Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs, will be in Athens from 8 to 9 February. He will hold a number of meetings, including with Mr Prokópis Pavlópoulos, President of the Hellenic Republic; Mr Alexis Tsipras, Prime Minister of Greece; Mr Euclid Tsakalotos, Minister of Finance of Greece; Mr Dimitris Papadimitriou, Minister of Economy and Development and Mr Alexandros Charitsis, Alternate Minister of Economy and Development. He will also meet Mr Kyriakos Mitsotakis, President of New Democracy and Ms Fofi Gennimata, President of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement. Commissioner Moscovici will also deliver the keynote address at an event organised by The Economist and participate in an exchange of views with members of the Hellenic Parliament. (For more information: Johannes Bahrke – Tel.: +32 229 58615; Enda McNamara – Tel.: +32 229 64976)

 

Commissioner Hahn travels to Belgrade and Podgorica

Johannes Hahn, Commissioner for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, will be in Serbia from 7 to 8 February and Montenegro on Friday 9 February. These are the first visits immediately following yesterday’s Commission’s adoption of the Strategy ‘A credible enlargement perspective for and enhanced EU engagement with the Western Balkans’. Meeting with key countries’ representatives – political authorities including opposition groups as well as representatives of the civil society organisations, Commissioner Hahn will discuss the Strategy and its implications for the two countries and the whole region. In Serbia, Commissioner Hahn will meet with President Aleksandar Vučić, Prime Minister Ana Brnabić, representatives of opposition parties and of Serbian NGOS and civil society organisations. Commissioner Hahn will also attend, together with Prime Minister Ana Brnabić, the signing ceremony of two financial agreements between the EU and Serbia on integrated border management and on support to Serbia hosting refugees. In Montenegro, Commissioner Hahn will meet with Prime Minister Duško Marković, he will address the Parliament, will engage in discussions with civil society representatives in attendance and will visit an EU funded connectivity project on Podgorica Railway Station. Videos and photos of the visit will be available on EbS. (For more information: Maja Kocijančič – Tel.: +32 229 86570; Alceo Smerilli – Tel.:+32 229 64887)

Upcoming events of the European Commission (ex-Top News)




Twinning: 20 years of successfully sharing EU expertise through over 2700 projects

With the recent launch of the newest Twinning project in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the total number of Twinning projects implemented in the past 20 years surpasses 2700 in this anniversary year. The new project aims to establish peer-to-peer, on the ground cooperation with the partner country’s Customs Administration in Skopje in order to simplify customs procedures and to create a business-friendly environment.

Johannes Hahn, Commissioner for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, said: “The 20th anniversary of Twinning is an occasion to celebrate and to reflect on past achievements as well as on future perspectives. Over the past 20 years, more than 2700 Twinning projects have been successfully implemented, from reforming asylum legislation in Serbia to strengthening e-governance in Georgia. Encouraging peer-to-peer exchange, Twinning continues to provide invaluable added value in promoting modernisation, EU values and structural reforms efforts as well as in fostering change, stability, security and prosperity throughout the Neighbourhood and Enlargement regions.”

Background

Twinning is a unique form of long-term cooperation between EU countries’ public administrations and their counterparts in candidate and potential candidate countries for EU membership as well as in the EU’s Neighbourhood region. Twinning projects encourage public administration reform, support EU values and develop European-based standards and norms. Key to the success of Twinning is the peer-to-peer expertise provided on the ground by civil servants from EU Member States which work hand-in-hand with national administrations in the partner countries.

In the Enlargement region, Twinning supports the transposition, implementation and enforcement of EU legislation. In this context, Twinning also provided extensive support to the countries which became EU Member States in 2004, 2007 and 2013. A recently finalised Twinning project, for example, helped the Commissariat for Refugees and Migration and the Ministry of the Interior of the Republic of Serbia to deliver on the preparation of a new asylum law and on the reform of the country’s asylum system. Through capacity building measures, it was able to support Serbia in its efforts to align itself with EU standards in the field of asylum policy.

In the EU’s Neighbourhood region, Twinning reaches out to EU neighbours willing to strengthen their cooperation with the EU. For example, a recently-concluded EU Twinning project on strengthening e-Governance in Georgia led to a new digital signature law and to the adoption of an overall European framework of electronic identification for electronic transactions, a crucial step for Georgia and its integration with Europe.

For More Information

Twinning website

Twinning Activity Report 2016




Our plan for a migration system that protects our public services and economy

The Scottish Government has published a new plan for a Scottish immigration system that protects our public services and economy.  Read the plan in full here. 

 

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News story: GC team contributes to ongoing discussions on honey authenticity

Validating honey authenticity claims with regards to botanical source or geographical origin is a global issue. An EU Coordinated Control Plan on honey adulteration indicated that 38% of the 2,264 honey samples examined in the EU were non-compliant with authenticity criteria.

The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) convened a Technical Round Table on Honey Authentication on 25 January 2018 to help in the fight against food fraud.

The meeting was opened by the Director of the JRC, Elke Anklam and was chaired by Franz Ulberth (Head of Fraud Detection and Prevention at JRC). It was attended by approximately 45 delegates from EU member States and included policy officials, academic researchers, Official Control Laboratory scientists, industry scientists and the Chairman of the UK Honey Association. Selvarani Elahi, Michael Walker and John Warren, from the UK Government Chemist team, attended and contributed to the meeting.

The meeting identified many technical areas where further work and clarity would be beneficial for the authentication of honey. These will be covered in a forthcoming note from the JRC.