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The following is issued on behalf of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority:        Tenders to be held on December 31:   Tender date : December 31, 2018 Paper on offer : EF Bills … read more

     The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (December 20) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for November 2018. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 2.6% in November 2018 over the same month a year earlier, slightly smaller than the corresponding increase (2.7%) in October 2018. Netting out the effects of all Government’s one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) in November 2018 was 2.9%, slightly smaller than that in October 2018 (3.0%), mainly due to the decreases in the prices of women’s outerclothing and the smaller increases in local transport fares in November 2018.

     On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from September to November 2018 was 0.3%, and that for the 3-month period from August to October 2018 was 0.2%. Netting out the effects of all Government’s one-off relief measures, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from September to November 2018 was 0.3%, and that for the 3-month period from August to October 2018 was 0.2%.

     Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.0%, 2.4% and 2.3% respectively in November 2018, as compared to 3.2%, 2.5% and 2.3% respectively in October 2018. Netting out the effects of all Government’s one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.3%, 2.8% and 2.6% respectively in November 2018, as compared to 3.5%, 2.9% and 2.6% respectively in October 2018.

     On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the 3-month period from September to November 2018, the average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. The corresponding rates of increase for the 3-month period from August to October 2018 were 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.2% respectively. Netting out the effects of all Government’s one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from September to November 2018 were 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and the corresponding rates of increase for the 3-month period from August to October 2018 were 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.2% respectively.

     Amongst the various CPI components, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in November 2018 for electricity, gas and water (4.0% in the Composite CPI and 4.4% in the CPI(A)); food (excluding meals bought away from home) (3.5% in the Composite CPI and 3.3% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous services (3.1% in the Composite CPI and 2.2% in the CPI(A)); housing (3.0% in the Composite CPI and 4.3% in the CPI(A)); meals bought away from home (2.7% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)); alcoholic drinks and tobacco (1.9% in the Composite CPI and 2.1% in the CPI(A)); transport (1.6% in the Composite CPI and 0.9% in the CPI(A)) and miscellaneous goods (1.4% in the Composite CPI and 1.7% in the CPI(A)).

     On the other hand, year-on-year decreases in prices were recorded in November 2018 for durable goods (-1.8% in the Composite CPI and -1.6% in the CPI(A)) as well as clothing and footwear (-0.2% in the Composite CPI and -0.4% in the CPI(A)). 

     Taking the first 11 months of 2018 together, the Composite CPI rose by 2.4% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.7%, 2.3% and 2.2% respectively. Netting out the effects of all Government’s one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 2.6%, 2.9%, 2.6% and 2.4% respectively in the first 11 months of 2018 over a year earlier.

     For the 3 months ended November 2018, the Composite CPI rose by 2.6% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 3.2%, 2.5% and 2.3% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government’s one-off relief measures were 3.0%, 3.5%, 2.9% and 2.6% respectively.

     For the 12 months ended November 2018, the Composite CPI was on average 2.3% higher than that in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.6%, 2.2% and 2.2% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government’s one-off relief measures were 2.5%, 2.8%, 2.5% and 2.4% respectively.
 
Commentary

     A Government spokesman said that consumer price inflation went down slightly in November. In the coming months, the underlying inflation rate will likely hover near the current level, as the earlier rises in fresh-letting residential rentals continue to feed through. The Government will monitor the situation closely, particularly the impact on the lower-income people.

Further information

     The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for November 2018 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of all Government’s one-off relief measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest 3 months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI and the underlying inflation rate are presented graphically in Chart 1.

     More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison, seasonally adjusted data series and the CPIs by the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP)) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the November 2018 issue of the “Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index” (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=B1060001), the time series of CPIs at detailed level (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600001), the time series of CPIs at COICOP division level (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600002) and the time series of CPIs after netting out the effects of all Government’s one-off relief measures (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600003) free of charge at the website of the C&SD.

     For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD (Tel: 3903 7374 or email: cpi@censtatd.gov.hk). read more

     Further to the external merchandise trade statistics in value terms for October 2018 released earlier on, the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (December 20) the volume and price statistics of external merchandise trade for that month.

     In October 2018, the volume of Hong Kong’s total exports of goods increased by 11.9% over October 2017. Concurrently, the volume of imports of goods increased by 10.3%.

     Comparing the first ten months of 2018 with the same period in 2017, the volume of Hong Kong’s total exports of goods increased by 7.2%. Concurrently, the volume of imports of goods increased by 8.4%.

     Comparing the three-month period ending October 2018 with the preceding three months on a seasonally adjusted basis, the volume of total exports of goods increased by 1.1%. Concurrently, the volume of imports of goods increased by 0.7%.

     Changes in volume of external merchandise trade are derived from changes in external merchandise trade value with the effect of price changes discounted.

     Comparing October 2018 with October 2017, the prices of total exports of goods increased by 2.6%. Concurrently, the prices of imports of goods increased by 2.9%.

     As regards price changes in the first ten months of 2018 over the same period in 2017, the prices of total exports of goods increased by 2.5%.  Concurrently, the prices of imports of goods increased by 2.7%.

     Price changes in external merchandise trade are reflected by changes in unit value indices of external merchandise trade, which are compiled based on average unit values or, for certain commodities, specific price data.

     The terms of trade index is derived from the ratio of price index of total exports of goods to that of imports of goods. Compared with the same periods in 2017, the index decreased by 0.4% and 0.1% in October 2018 and in the first ten months of 2018 respectively.

     Changes in the unit value and volume of total exports of goods by main destination are shown in Table 1.

     Comparing October 2018 with October 2017, double-digit increases were recorded for the total export volume to Vietnam (+15.7%) and the mainland of China (the Mainland) (+13.4%). Concurrently, the total export volume to the USA increased by 8.1%. On the other hand, the total export volume to India and Japan decreased by 2.7% and 9.1% respectively.

     Over the same period of comparison, the total export prices to the Mainland, the USA and Japan increased by 3.8%, 2.5% and 1.9% respectively. On the other hand, the total export prices to Vietnam and India decreased by 0.2% and 3.7% respectively.

     Changes in the unit value and volume of imports of goods by main supplier are shown in Table 2.

     Comparing October 2018 with October 2017, double-digit increases were recorded for the import volume from the Mainland (+14.1%) and Japan (+10.8%). Concurrently, the import volume from Korea and Singapore increased by 9.0% and 8.6% respectively. On the other hand, the import volume from Taiwan decreased by 5.0%.

     Over the same period of comparison, the import prices from all main suppliers increased: Korea (+5.3%), Singapore (+3.9%), the Mainland (+3.7%), Japan (+3.2%) and Taiwan (+1.3%).

Further information

     Details of the above statistics are published in the October 2018 issue of “Hong Kong Merchandise Trade Index Numbers”. Users can download the publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp230.jsp?productCode=B1020006).

     Enquiries on merchandise trade indices may be directed to the Trade Analysis Section (1) of the C&SD (Tel: 2582 4918). read more

     The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (December 20) the preliminary figures of chain volume measures of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by economic activity for the third quarter of 2018.     &nbsp… read more

     Following is the speech by the Chief Executive, Mrs Carrie Lam, at the 2018 Hang Lung Mathematics Awards Announcement and Awards Presentation today (December 20):
 
Weber (Chief Executive Officer of Hang Lung Properties, Mr Weber Lo), Professor Cheng (Chairman of the Steering Committee of the 2018 Hang Lung Mathematics Awards, Professor Cheng Shiu-yuen), Professor Xin (Chairman of the Scientific Committee of the 2018 Hang Lung Mathematics Awards, Professor Xin Zhouping), Professor Tuan (Vice-Chancellor and President of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Professor Rocky Tuan), principals, teachers, students, ladies and gentlemen,
 
     Good afternoon. It gives me great pleasure to join you today for the 2018 Hang Lung Mathematics Awards Presentation Ceremony.
 
     Someone once said that the difference between a politician and a mathematician is that a mathematician tries to say the most in the least number of words, while the politician concentrates on the opposite. So you may wonder what will the chemistry be like when a politician is married to a mathematician. With my husband Dr Lam, a mathematician, in the audience today, let me tell you that I have every respect for mathematicians and I dare not say too much in front of him. On this biennial occasion, I intend also to say no more than is necessary, so that we can move on to the highlight of this welcome day – the presentation of the 2018 Hang Lung Mathematics Awards.
 
     But I have to impress upon you that this is the third time I have attended as guest of honour at this prestigious awards ceremony, held once every two years. I think in the past it was attended by the Secretary for Education, quite rightly so. I “took over” and attended the event in 2014 and 2016 as the Chief Secretary for Administration upon the invitation of my good friend Ronnie Chan (Chairman of Hang Lung Properties). This reflects not only my personal support for young mathematicians – we have many in the audience today – which should not be a surprise to you given the well-known fact that my two sons both followed their father’s footsteps and studied mathematics at Cambridge University, but also my Government’s support for mathematics education and the nurturing of maths talents.
 
     Today, technology and innovation are driving changes in ways that we have never imagined, and changes appear at every level of our economy and our society. If Hong Kong is to continue to flourish, we must ensure that our young people be given every opportunity to succeed, every opportunity to tackle real-life challenges with innovative ideas and an analytical grounding.
 
     That, ladies and gentlemen, adds up to education inspired by a formidable foundation in science, technology, engineering and mathematics, or STEM in short. While a mathematical solution is seldom as eye-catching as a physical invention, the elements of creativity and innovation in STEM are very much mathematics-based. Mathematics provides a reliable system and logical language for verifying hypotheses and proving new theories for the development of sciences, technologies and engineering.
 
     Consider your smartphone. It is the infusion of pioneer technology like AI (artificial intelligence) and big data sciences in our daily lives. But let us not forget, it is the use of mathematics and computational thinking which provide the solid theoretical foundation and efficient algorithms for the technological advancement that we are witnessing.
 
     It is the reason why my Government mandates that all students study mathematics and coding in their primary and secondary years. It’s also the reason why the Education Bureau advocates mathematical modelling as an integral part of STEM education. That allows students to experience mathematics at work in real-life situations, from the control of traffic lights to weather forecasts.
 
     Of course, I’m not suggesting that every student become a mathematician. What I do hope for, or what my Government is working towards, is encouraging a community-wide, economy-fuelled awareness and appreciation of mathematics. It is, after all, a universal language, and our future demands that we be fluent in it.
 
     At the same time, we are also encouraging excellence in mathematical research, for which I’ve committed additional resources since taking office in July last year. The highlight of that commitment is an undertaking in my Policy Address delivered in October this year to inject HK$20 billion into the Research Endowment Fund of the UGC (University Grants Committee).
 
     I am naturally delighted to be here today to congratulate the winning team and the finalists of this year’s competition, and applaud the 260 students in more than 90 teams who participated. I understand that they come from over 60 Hong Kong schools, and among them 19 are participating for the first time. This is testimony to the excellent work of Hang Lung Properties, the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Department of Mathematics, and all Awards committee members, which make the Hang Lung Mathematics Awards such a great success. My thanks as well to the mathematics teachers and professors involved, whose dedication helps nurture so many brilliant students for Hong Kong.
 
     Finally, I wish the students every success in their future endeavours. May I take this opportunity to wish every one of you Merry Christmas and a prosperous new year ahead. Thank you very much.