PRESS RELEASE

26 July 2019

• Inflation expectations revised down by 0.1 p.p. at all horizons
• Real GDP growth expectations broadly unchanged
• Unemployment rate expectations revised down

Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2019 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 1.3%, 1.4% and 1.5% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. These results represent downward revisions of 0.1 percentage points (p.p.) for each of those years compared with the previous (Q2 2019) survey round. Average longer-term inflation expectations (which, like all other longer-term expectations in this SPF, refer to 2024) declined from 1.8% to 1.7%.

SPF respondents’ expectations for growth in euro area real GDP averaged 1.2%, 1.3% and 1.4% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. This represents no change to the expectations for 2019 and 2021 and a downward revision of 0.1 p.p. for 2020. At 1.4%, average longer-term expectations for real GDP growth were also unchanged.

Average unemployment rate expectations were revised down by 0.2 p.p. for each of 2019, 2020 and 2021 to stand at 7.6%, 7.4% and 7.3%, respectively. The latest expectations continued to point to further falls in the unemployment rate. Expectations for the unemployment rate in the longer term were revised down to 7.3%.

For media enquiries, please contact Stefan Ruhkamp (tel.: +49 69 1344 5057).

Notes:

• The SPF is conducted on a quarterly basis and gathers expectations for the rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, together with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding them. The participants in the survey are experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions based within the European Union. The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or its staff. The next ECB staff macroeconomic projections will be published on 13 September 2019.
• Since 2015 the results of the SPF have been published on the ECB’s website. For surveys prior to the first quarter of 2015, see the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin (2002-14: Q1 – February, Q2 – May, Q3 – August, Q4 – November).
• This survey was conducted between 1 and 5 July 2019. The number of responses was 52.
• The SPF report and data are available via the SPF webpage and via the ECB’s Statistical Data Warehouse.

PRESS RELEASE

26 July 2019

• 251,000 counterfeit euro banknotes were withdrawn from circulation in the first half of 2019
• Over 80% of those counterfeits were €20 and €50 banknotes
• Euro banknotes continue to be a trusted and safe means of payment
• All euro banknotes can be verified using the “feel, look and tilt” method

Some 251,000 counterfeit euro banknotes were withdrawn from circulation in the first half of 2019, a decrease of 4.2% when compared with the second half of 2018 and 16.6% less than in the first half of 2018. The likelihood of receiving a counterfeit is very small indeed as the number of counterfeits remains very low compared with the number of genuine banknotes in circulation, which has risen steadily at rates in excess of GDP growth since they were first introduced. In 2018 the number and value of euro banknotes in circulation grew by around 5.6% and 5.2%, respectively. There are now over 22 billion euro banknotes in circulation, with a total value of around €1.2 trillion.

The half-yearly figures are shown below:

Breakdown by denomination:

In the first half of 2019:

• The €20 and €50 notes continued to be the most counterfeited banknotes, jointly accounting for over 80% of all counterfeits.
• Most counterfeits (97.2%) were found in euro area countries. The rest were found in non-euro area EU Member States (2.1%) and in other parts of the world (0.7%).

Check your banknotes!

Ever since the first series of euro banknotes was issued, the Eurosystem – i.e. the European Central Bank (ECB) and the 19 national central banks of the euro area – has encouraged people to be vigilant when receiving banknotes. You can check your notes by using the simple “feel, look and tilt” method described in the “The €uro” section of the ECB’s website and on the websites of the national central banks. If you receive a suspect banknote, compare it directly with one you know to be genuine. If your suspicions are confirmed please contact the police or – depending on national practice – your national central bank or your own retail or commercial bank. The Eurosystem supports law enforcement agencies in their fight against currency counterfeiting.

The Eurosystem communicates in various ways to help people distinguish between genuine and counterfeit notes, as well as to help professional cash handlers ensure that banknote-handling and processing machines can reliably identify counterfeits and withdraw them from circulation.

The Eurosystem has a duty to safeguard the integrity of euro banknotes and to continue improving banknote technology. The second series of banknotes – the Europa series – is even more secure and is helping to maintain public trust in the currency.

New €100 and €200 banknotes with enhanced security features entered into circulation on 28 May 2019. This marked the completion of the Europa series, which has involved many years of preparation and cooperation within the Eurosystem.

For media queries, please contact Esther Tejedor, tel.: +49 69 1344 95596.