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Article – Coming up: EU long-term budget, Covid-19, Europe day

To ensure that EU programmes, including support for regions and Erasmus, will continue in the event that an agreement on the long-term budget covering 2021-2027 is not reached in time, the budget committee will vote Monday on a request for a contingency plan to extend all EU programmes beyond 2020.

Parliament President David Sassoli and political group leaders will discuss the European Commission’s new proposal for the EU’s long-term budget with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday. The proposal will be discussed by the whole Parliament at the next plenary session on 13 May.

Committees will question commissioners on a range of issues linked to the Covid-19 crisis, including the use of personal date in the fight against the pandemic and how the digital transformation can boost recovery; the impact on security and migration; and how the crisis is affecting the media and creative sectors.

Saturday 9 May is Europe Day, which this year marks the 70th anniversary of the Schuman declaration. Although it is unable to organise physical events for visitors to enjoy because of the coronavirus, Parliament is offering a full day of virtual programmes including Facebook lives and an online exhibition.

Results of the Q2 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

PRESS RELEASE

4 May 2020

Expected effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and subsequent mitigation measures have a significant impact on inflation, growth and unemployment rate forecasts
HICP inflation expectations for shorter horizons revised sharply down, while average longer-term inflation expectations unchanged
Real GDP growth expectations for current and next year revised significantly – down and up respectively
Unemployment rate expectations revised up sharply for 2020 with only a gradual unwinding thereafter

Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2020 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 0.4%, 1.2% and 1.4% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively. These results represent downward revisions of 0.8, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively. Average longer-term inflation expectations (which, like all other longer-term expectations in this round of the SPF, refer to 2024) remained at 1.7%.

SPF respondents’ expectations for growth in euro area real GDP averaged -5.5%, 4.3% and 1.7% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively. These represent large revisions from the previous round of -6.6 percentage points for 2020 and +3.1 percentage points for 2021. At 1.4%, average longer-term expectations for real GDP growth were unchanged.

Average unemployment rate expectations stand at 9.4%, 8.9% and 8.4% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively. These represent upward revisions of 1.9, 1.5 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively. Expectations for the unemployment rate in the longer term were also revised up by 0.4 percentage points to 7.7%.

Table: Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q2 2020
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)

Survey horizon	2020	2021	2022	Longer term (1)
HICP inflation
SPF Q2 2020	0.4	1.2	1.4	1.7
Previous SPF (Q1 2020)	1.2	1.4	1.5	1.7
HICP inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
SPF Q2 2020	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.6
Previous SPF (Q1 2020)	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.6
Real GDP growth
SPF Q2 2020	-5.5	4.3	1.7	1.4
Previous SPF (Q1 2020)	1.1	1.2	1.4	1.4
Unemployment rate (2)
SPF Q2 2020	9.4	8.9	8.4	7.7
Previous SPF (Q1 2020)	7.5	7.4	7.3	7.3

1) Longer-term expectations refer to 2024.
2) As a percentage of the labour force.

For media enquiries, please contact Stefan Ruhkamp (tel.: +49 69 1344 5057).

Notes

The SPF is conducted on a quarterly basis and gathers expectations for the rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, together with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding them. The participants in the survey are experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions based within the European Union. The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or its staff. The next Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections will be published on 4 June 2020.
Since 2015 the results of the SPF have been published on the ECB’s website. For surveys prior to the first quarter of 2015, see the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin (2002-2014: Q1 – February, Q2 – May, Q3 – August, Q4 – November).
The survey was conducted between 31 March and 7 April 2020 with 57 responses received – over 80% of replies were received on Monday 6 April (63%) and Tuesday 7 April (19%).
The SPF report and data are available via the SPF webpage and via the ECB’s Statistical Data Warehouse.

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The global response: Working together to help the world get better

“Chance favours the prepared mind”. This was the mantra of Louis Pasteur, one of the world’s greatest scientists and a mastermind behind vaccines and breakthroughs which have saved millions of lives spanning three centuries.

Just as it was back then, the world is today confronted with a virus that sweeps across countries and continents, breaking into our homes and our hearts. This virus has caused devastation and pain in all corners of the world, locking us away from the touch of the people we love, the joy of the things we usually do and the sights of the places we want to be.

This sacrifice, and the heroic efforts of medical and care staff around the world, have helped us bend the trend in many parts of the world. While some are cautiously emerging from lockdown, others are still in isolation and see their daily social and economic lives severely restricted. Consequences could be particularly dramatic in Africa and the Global South as a whole.

But what we all have in common is that none of us can really think or plan ahead with any great certainty about what the future of the pandemic really holds.

This means that we all have a stake in this. None of us is immune to the pandemic and none of us can beat the virus alone. In fact, we will not truly be safe until all of us are safe – across every village, city, region and country in the world. In our interconnected world, the global health system is as strong as its weakest part. We will need to protect each other to protect ourselves.

This poses a unique and truly global challenge. And it makes it imperative that we give ourselves the best chance to defeat it. This means bringing together the world’s best – and most prepared – minds to find the vaccines, treatments and therapies we need to make our world healthy again, while strengthening the health systems that will make them available for all, with a particular attention to Africa.

We are building on the commitment by G20 leaders to develop a massive and co-ordinated response to the virus. We are supporting the call to action that the World Health Organization and other global health actors have made together. For this reason, we have recently launched the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator, a global cooperation platform to accelerate and scale-up research, development, access and equitable distribution of the vaccine and other life-saving therapeutics and diagnostics treatments. This laid the foundation for a real international alliance to fight COVID-19.

We are determined to work together, with all those who share our commitment to international co-operation. We are ready to lead and support the global response.

Our aim is simple: on the 4^th of May we want to raise, in an online pledging conference, an initial 7.5 billion euros (8 billion dollars) to make up the global funding shortfall estimated by the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB) and others.

We will all put our own pledges on the table and we are glad to be joined by partners from the world over. The funds that we raise will kick-start an unprecedented global cooperation between scientists and regulators, industry and governments, international organisations, foundations and health care professionals. We support the World Health Organisation and we are delighted to join forces with experienced organizations such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Wellcome Trust

Every single euro or dollar that we raise together will be channelled primarily through recognised global health organisations such as CEPI, Gavi, the Vaccines Alliance, as well as the Global Fund and Unitaid into developing and deploying as quickly as possible, for as many as possible, the diagnostics, treatments and vaccines that will help the world overcome the pandemic. If we can develop a vaccine that is produced by the world, for the whole world, this will be an unique global public good of the 21^st century. Together with our partners, we commit to making it available, accessible and affordable to all.

This is our generation’s duty and we know we can make this happen. High quality and low-cost health technologies are not a daydream. And we have seen how public-private partnerships have managed to make many life-saving vaccines available to the poorest people on earth over the last two decades.

We know this race will be long. As from today, we will sprint towards our first goal but we will be ready for a marathon. The current target will only cover the initial needs: manufacturing and delivering medicines on a global scale will require resources well above the target.

Together, we have to ensure that resources will continue being mobilised and that progress will be made to achieve universal access to vaccination, treatment and testing.

This is a defining moment for the global community. By rallying around science and solidarity today we will sow the seeds for greater unity tomorrow. Guided by the Sustainable Development Goals, we can redesign the power of community, society and global collaboration, to make sure that nobody is left behind.

This is the World against Covid-19. And together we will win.

Signatories: Charles Michel, President of the European Council; Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission; Giuseppe Conte, Prime Minister of Italy; Emmanuel Macron, President of France; Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany; Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of Norway.

Declaration by the High Representative Josep Borrell, on behalf of the European Union, on the occasion of the World Press Freedom Day, 3 May 2020

Thank you for your essential work! #WorldPressFreedomDay

On World Press Freedom Day, we pay tribute to the essential role of journalism in upholding online and offline freedom of expression in democratic societies and fostering transparency and accountability.

The COVID-19 crisis has brought the importance of the work of the press into sharp relief. In times of uncertainty, more than ever, access to reliable fact-checked information, that is free from undue interference and influence, is crucial and contributes to a more resilient society. It is a matter of concern that the COVID-19 pandemic is being used in some countries as a pretext for imposing undue restrictions on freedom of the press.

Despite the additional risks and challenges arising from COVID-19 pandemic, journalists and media workers all over the world are continuing their essential work, sometimes in difficult circumstances. They are giving a voice to the most vulnerable, making sure their stories are heard. They are bringing testimonies from less accessible areas, including conflict zones. They are providing essential information about the often devastating impact of the pandemic in different parts of the world as well as uplifting stories of solidarity and courage.

Journalists are pivotal in facilitating the debate on how societies can prepare better for challenges as those we are facing and ultimately how they can become safer, more prosperous and more sustainable. Journalists must be able to work freely. Today, perhaps more than ever, freedom of the press is a cornerstone of democratic societies, which can thrive only if citizens have access to reliable information and can make informed choices. Journalism helps to detect and counter disinformation.

In too many countries journalists have to contend with restrictive legislation, sometimes ascribed to the COVID-19 emergency, that curbs freedom of expression and the freedom of the press. Internet shutdowns and website closures are proliferating. Reporters, especially women, are subject to smear campaigns, financial pressure and attacks by government or partisan media outlets, often forcing them to self-censor. Too many face harassment, arbitrary arrest and imprisonment. Too many have lost their lives for doing their work.

The European Union is working at home and abroad to counter the health, human rights and socio-economic implications of the pandemic, including on media houses. While uncompromising on the need to uphold freedom of expression, the EU’s response also focuses on fighting disinformation about COVID-19. This involves promoting trustworthy sources, demoting false or misleading content, and taking down content that is illegal. These actions can only succeed if they can build on the conscientious work of committed and courageous journalists, whose daily efforts make societies safer, fairer and more democratic.

Today, the EU strongly reaffirms its continued support for the key role of independent and reliable media all around the world. Press freedom is a right, not just of media professionals, but of each and every one of us.